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TNF picks: Breaking down NFL betting splits for Cowboys vs. Bucs in Week 1

We break down betting splits for the 2021 NFL season opener, the Week 1 Thursday Night Football matchup between Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers huddles his offense against the Houston Texans during a NFL preseason game at NRG Stadium on August 28, 2021 in Houston, Texas. Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

The 2021 NFL regular season will officially kickoff on Thursday at 8 p.m. ET with the Dallas Cowboys taking on the reigning Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay returns all their starters from last season’s team as they try to repeat as Super Bowl champs. The Cowboys are trying to bounce back from a down 2020 season, where they finished 6-10 in the NFC East.

Cowboys vs. Bucs, Week 1 betting splits

Betting the spread: Bucs -8.5. 79% of the handle and 76% of bets are on the Bucs to cover.

Is the public right? Yes, the public is right when it comes to the spread for tonight’s regular season opener. Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 4-2 ATS in their last six games in September. Meanwhile, the Cowboys, they are 1-4 against spread in their last five games in September. The Bucs have a dominant front seven on defense and are loaded on offense.

Betting the over/under: 51.5. 56% of the handle and 59% of the total bets are on the over.

Is the public right? Based on what we saw from both teams last season, it is not a surprise to see the public taking the over. However, the better play might be the under. We’ve seen in both the first week of the preseason and college football season how the under were very profitable.

The same thing could happen in tonight’s game as the Cowboys could be without starting offensive line Zack Martin and Dak Prescott will be seeing his first game action. The last five games that these two teams played against each other, the total has gone under gone four times. Furthermore, the total has gone under in 5 out the Buccaneers’ last 6 home games against the Cowboys.

Betting the moneyline: Bucs -435, Cowboys +330. 70% of the handle and 86% of bets are on the Bucs, while 30% of the handle and 14% of bets are on the Cowboys.

Is the public right? The public is correct when it comes to who will win tonight’s season opener at Raymond James Stadium. The Buccaneers are the better team on paper and should cover the spread. Tampa Bay’s defensive line should cause problems for Dallas and put pressure on Prescott. Meanwhile, Tom Brady and the Bucs’ offense should be able to make plays in the air against a Cowboys’ secondary that gave up big plays.

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