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Public betting splits and line movement for 2022 Sugar Bowl: Baylor vs. Ole Miss

We break down the public betting splits and how the lines have moved for Baylor vs. Ole Miss in the 2022 Sugar Bowl.

NCAA Football: Big 12 Football Championship-Baylor vs Oklahoma State
Baylor Bears defensive lineman Brayden Utley reacts after making an interception during the second half against the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the Big 12 Conference championship game at AT&T Stadium.
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The Baylor Bears and Ole Miss Rebels meet Saturday in the Sugar Bowl with both programs looking to use the win as a springboard to future success on both the field and the recruiting trail. Dave Aranda and Lane Kiffin are rising coaches in their respective conferences and will look to add a major bowl win to their resume here.

So where are sports bettors going as we get closer to game time? Let’s take a look. All odds and info were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.

Point Spread

The Rebels are 1-point favorites, so this is essentially a pick ‘em contest. 62 percent of bets and 68 percent of the money is on Ole Miss, so the public is backing the SEC program in this game.

Is the public right? The Rebels have the better offense and with Matt Corral playing, it’s hard to bet against Ole Miss. Baylor’s offense has been methodical over the season but there’s some concerns on the defensive side which could cause the Bears some problems.

Over/Under

The point total is set at 58 and the public is overwhelmingly taking the over here. A whopping 92 percent of all bets are on the over and given the offenses on display, it’s hard to see this game going any other way.

Is the public right? A shootout is the right mentality for the betting public, even with a relatively high number. There could be an opportunity for bettors who like the under to get some value going against the grain.

Moneyline

Baylor is +100 and Ole Miss is -120 on the moneyline. Bettors are liking the value play in Baylor, with 53 percent of bets and 69 percent of the handle coming in on the Bears.

Is the public right? There’s value in taking Baylor, especially in what is essentially a pick ‘em game against the spread. The public is right to go for the plus odds on Baylor, although it doesn’t quite line up with the splits against the spread.

2022 Sugar Bowl: Baylor vs. Ole Miss

Opening line: Ole Miss -2
Current line: Ole Miss -1

The game was already predicted to be close, so a 1-point difference shouldn’t mean much in terms of movement. There must be a lot of money coming in on Ole Miss over the course of bowl season, which could be enough to swing the line a bit towards Baylor.

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