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How the public is betting the Patriots vs. Bills in the AFC Wild Card round

We break down the betting splits for the Patriots-Bills matchup in the AFC Wild Card round of the 2021 NFL Playoffs.

NFL Wild Card Weekend | Can Bill Belichick take down Buffalo once again?

The Wild Card round of the NFL Playoffs features an AFC East rematch between the division champion Buffalo Bills and the runner-up New England Patriots. The two teams split the previous two meetings this season, with the visiting team coming out on top both times. Kickoff in Orchard Park is set for Saturday night at 8:15.

So where are sports bettors going as we get closer to game time? Let’s take a look. All odds and info were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.

Point Spread

Bills -4.5: 73% of handle, 65% of bets on Buffalo

Is the public right?

This is a bit of a tough one to get a feel for. The Buffalo Bills dominated the most recent matchup, winning 33-21. But in the first meeting, the New England Patriots asserted their dominance on the ground and won 14-10 by throwing only three passes all game. Both teams have top-10 offenses and defenses as well.

Snow is projected to stay away Saturday night and the wind isn’t looking to play a major factor either, so offenses should be wide open, unlike the first meeting. Buffalo has the edge here, but I doubt this game is a blowout in either direction with the season on the line for Bill Belichick.

Bills win, Pats cover.

Over/Under

Line: 44.5 — 63% of the handle and 69% of the bets are on the over.

Is the public right?

This is a relatively easy one to hammer home. The first meeting was so low-scoring simply because the weather played a huge factor. The second meeting in ideal conditions shattered this line. It will be cold out Saturday night, but that’ll be the only factor at all in the forecast.

Expect the Bills to air it out like they love to do and for the Patriots to stay balanced. The second and sixth-best offenses in the NFL should be able to combine for more than 45 points, no matter what the defenses on the other side look like.

Moneyline

Bills -200 (67% of handle and 66% of bets), Patriots +170 (33% of handle and 34% of bets)

Is the public right?

This looks about right to me. Both teams are sort of limping into the postseason. The Pats suffered a loss to the Dolphins in Week 18. The Bills beat the Jets in the final game, but while the final score was convincing, they let one of the worst teams in the NFL hang around for three full quarters.

Still, Buffalo is playing better than New England at the moment. As long as Josh Allen doesn’t turn the ball over, the Bills should win a close one.

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