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Betting Patriots-Bills against the spread in the Wild Card Round

We make a pick against the spread and break down Patriots-Bills predictions in the Wild Card Round of the 2022 NFL Playoffs.

NFL: DEC 26 Bills at Patriots Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The battle for the AFC East title came down to the final week of the season, when the Buffalo Bills secured it for the second season in a row. Previously, it was assumed, rightly so, that the New England Patriots would just cruise to division crown after division crown, and they might have done so if not for a home loss to these very same Bills back in Week 16.

These two teams will meet for at third time on Saturday, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET. So far, the road team has come away with the win in their last two head-to-head matchups. But that might be a little tougher for the Patriots this week coming to Buffalo as four-point underdogs. Still, with Bill Belichick coaching the playoffs, you can still expect this one to be close, which makes New England a decent bet to cover.

Patriots vs. Bills ATS pick: Patriots +4

Buffalo rattled off four-straight wins to secure the division title, and while three of those victories came against the league’s bottom feeders, it includes an impressive 33-21 win in Week 16 over the Patriots. Bills quarterback Josh Allen passed for more than 300 yards in that one and threw three touchdowns.

It’s going to be harder to throw the ball this weekend as the weather forecast in Buffalo on Saturday is calling for a high of just 10 degrees. The ground game has been an advantage for the Bills lately, and they’ve had at least 100 rushing yards as a team in all of their last five games. The Patriots struggle to stop the run, and with a multifaceted run game, it’ll be hard for New England just to focus in on one player. Plus, the moment they do get a handle on the run, all the Bills need to do is find Stefon Diggs.

Still, because this is Belichick, it’s tough to envision Buffalo just running away with this one. Expect the Patriots to at least keep it within four points.

All odds via the DraftKings Sportsbook.

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