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How the public is betting the Bills vs. Patriots in the AFC Wild Card round

We break down the betting splits for Bills-Patriots in the AFC Wild Card round of the 2021 NFL Playoffs.

NFL: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

The nightcap for the first day of Wild Card weekend will feature the third matchup of the season between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills on Saturday night, and sports bettors will be jumping at the opportunity to make some money on a stand-alone playoff game.

So where are sports bettors going as we get closer to game time? Let’s take a look at betting splits for the Patriots-Bills Wild Card matchup as of game day. All odds and info were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.

Point Spread

The Bills are 4.5-point favorites. 63% of the handle and 59% of the bets are on the Bills.

Is the public right? With two teams that are so familiar with each other, I’ll take the points no matter who is getting them, so let’s take the Patriots. New England has a slightly better offense, while Buffalo is a little better defensively on a yards per play basis and if we’re getting more than a field goal in either direction, we’ll take it.


The point total is 44.0. 65% of the handle and 56% of the bets are on the under.

Is the public right? I’ll side with where the money is going and take the under especially if you can still get this below 44, which is an important number in NFL total betting. The Patriots run the ball at the sixth highest rate in the NFL, and that should help keep the clock running and limit possessions on both sides.


The Bills are -220 favorites while the Patriots are +180 underdogs. 66% of the handle and 63% of the bets are on the Bills to win.

Is the public right? I’m going the other way on this one. You are getting much more value on the Patriots in this spot, and -220 is not great odds for the Bills with a pair of evenly matched teams playing for a third time.

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