The Toronto Raptors and Dallas Mavericks haven’t reached the heights they expected to so far this season, but both teams have begun turning things around as they face each other Wednesday. The Raptors have most of their rotation back and have climbed into the playoff picture, while the Mavericks look to take advantage of a big jumble in the West with Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis healthy.
The Mavs are a 3.5-point favorites against the spread, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 207.5.
Pick ATS: Raptors +3.5
The Raptors have lost three out of their last four games and are 1-2 during their five-game road trip. In their three losses, Toronto has been held under 100 points. The last time these two teams played each other, the Raptors lost 103-95 at ScotiaBank Arena in October.
Despite their recent struggles, Toronto is 12-4 against the spread in their last 16 games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams from the west. Additionally, the Raptors are 10-7 ATS when they are road underdogs this season and 10-8 ATS on the road this season.
The Mavericks are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA and that has led them to winning three-straight games. Dallas is only allowing 93 points per game in their last three games and 94.5 points per game in their last 10 games. Doncic and Co. are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, but 7-7 ATS when they are the home favorites. The Mavericks are also 13-11 ATS when they are listed as the favorite this season. I think this game will be close and come down to the final few minutes in the fourth quarter. If Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, and OG Anunoby combine for 60-70 points, then the Raptors will cover and win.
Over/Under: Under 207
When the Raps and Mavs played for the first time in October, the total was 198. Both of these teams are sound defensively as Dallas is ranked third in opponent points per game (102.7). Meanwhile, the Raptors are ranked 11th in scoring defense (106.0 points per game).
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