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Patrick Mahomes fantasy outlook: Start or sit Chiefs QB in the Divisional round?

We go over the fantasy football and DFS outlook of Patrick Mahomes ahead of the Divisional round matchup against the Bills in the 2022 NFL Playoffs.

AFC Wild Card Playoffs - Pittsburgh Steelers v Kansas City Chiefs Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

Patrick Mahomes didn’t get off to a fast start versus the Pittsburgh Steelers last week; Kansas City was shut out in the first quarter. Then he threw five touchdowns in fewer than 15 minutes of game time. Such is life for one of the best players in the NFL. What might Mahomes accomplish during the Divisional round this weekend versus the Buffalo Bills?

Fantasy Football analysis: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes ($7,300)

Sunday’s matchup is about as tough as they come for Mahomes. Buffalo’s defense, which ranks first in overall DVOA, allowed a league-low 12 passing touchdowns during the regular season. When these teams met back in Week 5, Mahomes recorded a serviceable fantasy box score with 272 passing yards, two scores and 61 more yards on the ground. However, he also committed three turnovers that night in a Bills win at KC. Only three other QBs have thrown for multiple touchdowns in a game versus Buffalo this season. That pass defense has remained strong even after top cornerback Tre’Davious White was lost for the year due to a knee injury suffered on Thanksgiving.

Fantasy Start/Sit Recommendation

The uber-talented Mahomes is worth a shot in GPP contests in a game with a 54-point projected total. But shy away from him in cash games.