Winning tournaments takes some luck, but you have to set yourself up for that luck to work out to a big payday. In smaller slates like these during the playoffs, predicting rostership percentages for each player and then fading the correct higher percentage players is key to winning.
Fading a player in GPPs (tournaments) doesn’t mean you don’t play him at all, but it can mean playing him on 20 percent of your lineups versus 80 percent. You can go, full contrarian, if you want, but hedging into the perfect lineup is fine as well.
Sony Michel, RB, Rams ($4,600)
Cam Akers dominated touches in the Rams’ backfield last week against Tampa Bay. He also fumbled twice, which is fueling some speculation that Michel might see a little more playing time this week. Pump the brakes on that. Akers’ fumble troubles have as much to do with the fact that he’s only played two full games since returning from a torn Achilles. He’s the more talented back. Even if Michel does see an increase in touches this week, it’s unlikely that it’s going to be enough to justify a roster spot in most instances.
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers ($5,400)
With Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow playing this weekend, it’s easy to see why Garoppolo is getting short shrift. He’s easily the quarterback with the lowest ceiling of all four starters in action this weekend and the most likely to have a bad game. He still hasn’t thrown a touchdown in the playoffs, but he has thrown three against the Rams this season. That’s going to make him feel like a sneaky option to save some salary dollars for the top players at the other positions, but the ceiling is too low, not to mention the chance of reaching it, to depend on him.
Odell Beckham, WR, Rams ($5,100)
Beckham has the third-highest DraftKings salary of all the receivers playing in this game. He caught six passes on eight targets for 69 yards last week, more than he had the week before against Arizona (though he did score in that game.) However, in two games this season against the 49ers, he failed to put up more than 18 yards. If you’re playing a lot of lineups, he’s worth a spot in a few of them, but don’t be over-reliant on him to produce big numbers.