Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Thursday’s betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted at 2:30 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let’s discuss where smart money is leaning for Thursday Night Football tonight...
8:15 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, 44)
Both of these NFC opponents are looking to bounce back from losses. The Saints (2-4) have lost four of their last five games and just fell to the Bengals 30-26, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (2-4) have lost three of their last four games and just fell to the Seahawks 19-9, losing outright as 2.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with the Cardinals listed as a 2-point home favorite. Early money seemed to be backing the Saints, as we saw New Orleans fall from+2 down to+1.5. But over the past 48-hours all movement has been back toward Arizona, driving the Cardinals back up to -2.5. Currently 60% of bets and 68% of moneyis laying the points with Arizona at DraftKings. It will be interesting to see if this line reaches the key number of 3 on gameday, Historically, home favorites have covered at roughly a 57% clip on Thursday Night Football over the past decade.
The Saints match several profitable dog system matches. Road dogs are 31-21 ATS (60%) this season. Dogs that failed to cover the previous week are 20-13 ATS (61%). Dogs that missed the playoffs the previous season are 39-24 ATS (62%). Kyler Murray is just 8-14 ATS (36%) as a favorite.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 45 to 44. The under is receiving 54% of bets but 68% of money, a sharp under discrepancy. Unders are 57-37 (61%) this season. Unders that fall at least a half point are 32-20 (62%). Thursday Night Football unders are 5-1 this season and 17-7 (71%) since the start of last season. The Cardinals are 4-1-1 to the under. The Saints are 4-2 to the over.