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Odds to control US House of Representatives after 2022 midterm elections

While the Democrats have a slim majority for now, it’s the Republican party that are the odds-on favorite to take control of the lower chamber.

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House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy speaks during his weekly news conference at the U.S. Capitol on February 27, 2020 in Washington, DC. Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images

The makeup of the United States House of Representatives for the next two years will be determined on hangs in the balance on November 8, as 435 races in all 50 states will determine who controls the lower chamber of Congress for the final two years of Joe Biden’s first term.

Current balance of power

Democrats currently have a 220-212 majority in the House, with three vacancies currently because of two Democrats resigning in pursuit of other jobs, and the death of Indiana’s Jackie Walorski in August.

Most of these races aren’t really competitive, as only about 60 of the 435 are in doubt. While that number will move up and down based on local dynamics and candidate quality, the overwhelming majority of these elections are performative.

Right now FiveThirtyEight.com, which compiles polls from across the country and has a solid record on outcomes, gives the Republican Party a 85% chance of taking control as of November 1.

Odds to win control of US House of Representatives

We’ll use three different metrics to judge the betting markets for the 2022 midterm election, some of which are open to United States citizens and residents.

PredictIt: An US-based website where Americans can bet on the election, with a limit of $850 per person. New Zealand’s Victoria University of Wellington owns the site, which is used for academic research purposes and has an exemption from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

PolyMarket: A blockchain-based site where traders can bet on the outcomes of events inside and outside of politics using USDC, a stablecoin pegged to the value of $1 USD. It runs on the Polygon network.

Betfair: One of the largest sites worldwide for trading political futures, but not available to US-based customers.

The first two sites offer futures contracts that expire at $1.00 for the winner, which can be traded at any price until their final value is met. BetFair uses odds just as American sportsbooks do when taking action on the results of games.

November 7 11:50 a.m.

PredictIt: .12 for Democrats to win, .9 for Republicans to win

PolyMarket: .12 for Democrats to win, .88 for Republicans to win

Betfair: +750 for Democrats, -2500 for Republicans

November 2 6:30 p.m.

PredictIt: .11 for Democrats to win, .91 for Republicans to win

PolyMarket: .13 for Democrats to win, .87 for Republicans to win

Betfair: +750 for Democrats, -2500 for Republicans

November 1 1:00 a.m.

PredictIt: .12 for Democrats to win, .90 for Republicans to win

PolyMarket: .15 for Democrats to win, .85 for Republicans to win

Betfair: +750 for Democrats, -2500 for Republicans

October 28 2:45 p.m.

PredictIt: .11 for Democrats to win, .90 for Republicans to win

PolyMarket: .12 for Democrats to win, .88 for Republicans to win

Betfair: +750 for Democrats, -2500 for Republicans

October 27 1:00 p.m.

PredictIt: .12 for Democrats to win, .90 for Republicans to win

PolyMarket: .12 for Democrats to win, .88 for Republicans to win

Betfair: +750 for Democrats, -2500 for Republicans

October 26 1:00 p.m.

PredictIt: .11 for Democrats to win, .89 for Republicans to win

PolyMarket: .13 for Democrats to win, .87 for Republicans to win

Betfair: +750 for Democrats, -2500 for Republicans

October 24 1:00 p.m.

PredictIt: .11 for Democrats to win, .89 for Republicans to win

PolyMarket: .12 for Democrats to win, .88 for Republicans to win

Betfair: +750 for Democrats, -2500 for Republicans