clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Odds to win Ohio Senate race between Tim Ryan and J.D. Vance

We take a look at the latest betting prices between Democrat Tim Ryan and Republican J.D. Vance for the open Ohio Senate seat.

If you buy something from an SB Nation link, Vox Media may earn a commission. See our ethics statement.

Republican U.S. Senate candidate JD Vance speaks with supporters in his hometown at the Butler County GOP headquarters on October 19, 2022 in Middletown, Ohio. Vance, who is endorsed by former President Donald Trump, is running against Democratic candidate Rep. Tim Ryan in the November election. Photo by Gaelen Morse/Getty Images

Ohio hasn’t voted statewide for a Democrat not named Sherrod Brown or Barack Obama since 2006, and the national momentum would seem to be carrying forward in the Buckeye State for the Trump-endorsed Republican J.D. Vance.

But current Congressman Tim Ryan has made this a closer-than-expected race via the numbers with a populist message focused on non-college graduates, though he’s still a significant underdog to defeat the author of the New York Times best-seller Hillbilly Elegy.

We’ll use three websites to track how betting on the election is going:

PredictIt is a site where Americans can wager on the outcomes of political events, with an exemption from the US Government as the data is used for academic research.

PolyMarket is an “information markets platform” that allows traders to use the Polygon blockchain to make bets on the outcome of events.

BetFair is a market-based site where traders can buy and sell at odds, but is not available to customers in the United States.

The first two sites offer futures contracts that expire at $1.00 for the winner, which can be traded at any price until their final value is met. BetFair uses odds just as American sportsbooks do when taking action on the results of games.

Odds to win Ohio Senate race

Nov. 7

PredictIt D: Ryan .13
PredictIt R: Vance .90

PolyMarket D: Ryan .11
PolyMarket R: Vance .89

BetFair D: Ryan +550
BetFair R: Vance -1250

Nov. 2

PredictIt D: Ryan .16
PredictIt R: Vance .87

PolyMarket D: Ryan .17
PolyMarket R: Vance .83

BetFair D: Ryan +400
BetFair R: Vance -714

Nov. 1

PredictIt D: Ryan .14
PredictIt R: Vance .87

PolyMarket D: Ryan .17
PolyMarket R: Vance .83

BetFair D: Ryan +400
BetFair R: Vance -714

Oct. 28

PredictIt D: Ryan .16
PredictIt R: Vance .86

PolyMarket D: Ryan .17
PolyMarket R: Vance .83

BetFair D: Ryan +400
BetFair R: Vance -714

Oct. 27

PredictIt D: Ryan .19
PredictIt R: Vance .83

PolyMarket D: Ryan .17 ⬆️ .02 since yesterday
PolyMarket R: Vance .83 ⬇️ .02 since yesterday

BetFair D: Ryan +400
BetFair R: Vance -714

Oct. 26

PredictIt D: Ryan .18
PredictIt R: Vance .83

PolyMarket D: Ryan .15
PolyMarket R: Vance .85

BetFair D: Ryan +400
BetFair R: Vance -714

Oct. 24

PredictIt D: Ryan .16
PredictIt R: Vance .85

PolyMarket D: Ryan .20
PolyMarket R: Vance .80

BetFair D: Ryan +400
BetFair R: Vance -714

Latest polling from FiveThirtyEight.com

November 2

FiveThirtyEight gives Vance a 80 in 100 chance of winning this race based on an aggregation of weighted polling data.