The Mets dropped Game 1 of the series on Max Scherzer’s worst playoff start ever. He allowed four HRs over 4.2 innings in a 7-1 loss. Now, the Mets are forced to turn to ace Jacob deGrom in Game 2 to stop the bleeding and force Game 3 on Sunday.
Let’s take a look at the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and make a pick.
Padres vs. Mets Game 2 moneyline odds
The play is Padres ML, though part of me believes the Mets most likely pull this off. The thing is, there isn’t any value on the Mets ML at this number. Chances are this is going to be a pitchers’ duel into the late innings, then the bullpen will have to take over. The line is baked into the idea that deGrom is just going to pitch a complete game shutout or something. That could very well happen. But there are a few things to consider.
First, deGrom is dealing with a blister and that could be more of the reason Buck Showalter chose to go with Scherzer. It gives his ace an extra day of healing. Second, deGrom was pitching pretty horribly prior to the postseason. His last four starts he allowed at least three earned runs, which would seem like quality to most starters, but it wasn’t very deGrom-esque. He allowed six HRs during that stretch, which could come into play in Game 2 after watching the Pads belt four on Friday. So there’s more to worry about around deGrom than people are leading on.
Then we look at San Diego, which has arguably the best lefty starter the past three months on the mound in Blake Snell. Since July, Snell has allowed more than two earned runs in three of 17 starts. Snell’s last game vs. the Mets at Citi Field, he went 5.0 scoreless innings. His other start vs. New York was in June and it didn’t go as well. We’ll expect more of the recent Snell tonight.
The truth is there aren’t many appealing ways to bet this game. The under is 5.5 and that feels very low for a playoff game, especially after Friday night. There’s a chance deGrom gets hit and Snell only lasts around 5-6 innings, meaning a lot of bullpen. My lean would be the over, though look at some of the first 5 lines. The O/U for first 5 is 2.5 and the under is -105. If deGrom and Snell are both ON, there’s no way any runs are scored in five innings. That line feels better than the game line. If we’re betting any moneyline, I’d rather grab the Pads at those long odds knowing the game may reset once the starters are out.
Pick: Padres +1.5 (-155)