VSiN market analyst Josh Appelbaum has keyed in on several trends that apply to the game and the trends moving the lines in the betting market for Falcons vs. Panthers.
Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Thursday’s betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday Night Football...
The Falcons (4-5) have rotated wins and losses over the last five weeks, most recently falling to the Chargers 20-17 and failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Panthers (2-7) have lost two straight and five of their last six games. Carolina just got rolled by Bengals 42-21, failing to cover as 7-point road dogs.
This line opened with the Falcons listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. Early money laid the points with the Atlanta, driving the Falcons up to -3. Once we reached the key number of 3, there was a lot of sharp buyback on the Panthers +3, dropping the line back down to 2.5 at most shops. The Falcons are a big public play tonight, receiving80% of bets at DraftKings. (You can check the latest NFL Betting Splits here.)
The Panthers match several profitable betting systems. Dogs off a blowout loss of 20+ points are 7-3 ATS this season and 62% ATS since 2019. Dogs who failed to cover the previous week are 32-20 ATS (62%). Divisional dogs are 26-17 ATS (60%). Carolina is also contrarian in a heavily bet game. Primetime dogs are 16-11 ATS (59%). Bettors looking to back Carolina should hold out for the key number of +3. Either shop around or wait to see if game-day Falcons money drives the line back up to 3. Several shops are at Falcons -2.5 at -115 or -120 juice, signaling a possible natural rise back up to 3.
We’ve also seen pros hit the under. It opened at 40 and quickly got bet up to 44.5 early in the week. But then we saw a flood of smart money hit the under, dropping it down to 42.5. Unders are 81-55 (60%) this season. Divisional unders are 30-13 (70%) and primetime unders are 18-10 (64%). The forecast calls for rain and 15-20 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 25-8 (76%). The under is receiving 48% of bets but 60% of dollars, a sharp bet discrepancy.