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Projecting the top 6 in the CFP poll ahead of Week 12

Here’s what we think the committee will do when it unveils the next rankings.

Nebraska v Michigan
Blake Corum of the Michigan Wolverines looks for yards during a first half run against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan Stadium on November 12, 2022 in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

We already saw some significant change in the College Football Playoff rankings after one week thanks to some upsets from Notre Dame and LSU. The Irish and Tigers forced the committee to do some extra work in the second week. Those new rankings set up some intriguing matchups in Week 11 and with the slate nearly wrapped up, we can project Week 12’s top six teams.

As a reminder, here were the committee’s rankings from last week.

1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. TCU

5. Tennessee
6. Oregon

TCU finally got into the top four, while Oregon has made the long climb back to relevance after being thoroughly dispatched by Georgia in Week 1. The Ducks have a lot of opportunities for style points with their high-scoring offense but that loss to Georgia might be too big for the committee to ignore. The Bulldogs jumped to the top spot with a win over Tennessee, while the Vols fell outside the top four. Here’s our projection for the rankings ahead of Week 12.

College Football Playoff Projected Rankings for November 15

1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. TCU

5. Tennessee
6. LSU

The top four stays the same with all four teams getting wins. Oregon drops out after a tough loss to Washington, while LSU enters the fray despite a shaky victory over Arkansas. The Volunteers remain ahead of the Tigers due to a head-to-head matchup but LSU has the better path to the playoff because it will be in the SEC title game no matter what happens. Tennessee doesn’t control its own fate.