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Nico Collins start or sit: Week 12 fantasy football advice

We break down the fantasy football outlook of Nico Collins ahead of the Texans’ Week 12 matchup against the Dolphins.

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - SEPTEMBER 25: Nico Collins #12 of the Houston Texans looks on against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on September 25, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois. Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

The Houston Texans will look to play spoiler versus the Miami Dolphins, who are riding a four-game winning streak heading into Week 12. After their offense was contained in last week’s loss to the Commanders, the Texans are hoping for a bounce-back performance with wide receiver Nico Collins stepping into an emerging role. Does he make sense as a fantasy starter among lineups this week?

Fantasy Football analysis: Texans WR Nico Collins

Collins was targeted seven times which tied for a team-high last week versus the Commanders, as he finished with five receptions for 48 yards and 9.8 PPR fantasy points. He has seen 17 combined targets over the past two games and the sample size may illustrate how Collins has overtaken Brandin Cooks as the number-one receiver in Houston. While that may seem encouraging, it will be difficult for Collins to capitalize on the opportunity even against a suspect Dolphins defense.

Miami ranks 22nd in pass defense and allows 22.1 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers, which is the 11th-most in the NFL. But Collins can only benefit if the Texans emphasize the passing game in their script, which likely continues to not be the case. Davis Mills ranks 13th in pass attempts among all quarterbacks this season, and the Texans rank just 26th in passing with 196.4 yards per game through the air. Collins’ emerging status as the Texans’ WR1 is for naught given he plays for a rushing-dependent team in Houston.

Start or sit in Week 12?

Unless the Texans change their strategy and attempt to throw the ball more versus the run, Collins’ fantasy ceiling will remain limited. He’s best kept on the bench versus the Dolphins this week.