VSiN senior market analyst Josh Appelbaum has been following the line movement and some profitable trends that apply to the Baltimore Ravens vs. New Orleans Saints matchup on MNF.
Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Monday’s betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted by 2:30 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let’s discuss where respected money is leaning for tonight’s Monday Night Football showdown ...
The Ravens (5-3) have won three of their last four games and just beat the Bucs, 27-22, winning outright as 2-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Saints (3-5) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 24-0 win over the Raiders, winning outright as 1-point home dogs.
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover with Lamar Jackson and company. However, despite 77% of bets backing Baltimore, we’ve seen the Ravens fall from -3.5 to -1.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering the Ravens to begin with? No, the books aren’t just being nice to public Ravens bettors. If it looks too good to be true, it usually is. This fishy line move signals respected money grabbing the points with the Saints at home, triggering sharp reverse line movement in New Orleans’ favor.
The Saints have value as an unpopular contrarian dog (receiving only 23% of bets) in a heavily bet nationally televised game. Primetime dogs are 15-10 ATS (60%) this season. Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Saints, are 57-38 ATS (60%).
We’ve also seen sharps hit the under, dropping the total from 49 to 46.5. Unders that fall at least a half point are 43-25 (63%) this season. Primetime unders are 16-9 (64%). The under is receiving 50% of bets but 64% of money. This indicates that the public is split but the bigger, sharp wagers are taking the under.