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NFL picks: What are sharp bettors taking for Week 10?

VSiN senior market analyst Josh Appelbaum looks at early line movement

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NFL: NOV 06 Rams at Buccaneers Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Lines are moving and markets are being created for Week 10 in the NFL. VSiN’s senior market expert Josh Appelbaum has the noteworthy stats, trends and betting action driving those spreads and totals.

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves each day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Tuesday’s betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted by 2:30 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for NFL Week 10 ...

Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 44.5)

This game will be played at 9:30 a.m. ET Sunday morning in Munich, Germany. The Seahawks (6-3) have won four straight games and just beat the Cardinals, 31-21, winning outright as 2-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Bucs (4-5) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 16-13 win over the Rams, pushing as 3-point home favorites. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a short 1.5-point neutral site favorite. Respected money has laid the points with the Bucs, steaming Tampa Bay up from -1.5 to -2.5. The Bucs are only receiving 47% of bets but 67% of money, signaling some contrarian favorite value with a low bets, higher dollars sharp discrepancy. If the public piles on Seattle throughout the week this could also turn into a fade the trendy dog system match on Tampa Bay. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 46 to 44.5. The Bucs are 7-2 to the under this season.

Houston Texans at New York Giants (-6.5, 40)

The Texans (1-6-1) own the worst record in the NFL and just lost to the Eagles, 29-17 but covered as 14-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Giants (6-2) are coming off a bye and just fell to the Seahawks, 27-13, their last time out, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with the Giants listed as a 6-point home favorite. Wiseguys have laid the chalk with New York, driving the G-Men up from -6 to -6.5. Favorites off a bye, like the Giants, are roughly 57% ATS over the past decade, including 4-3 ATS this season. The Giants will likely be a popular teaser play as well, moving down from -6.5 to -0.5, which passes through the key number of 3. Pros have also hit the over, driving the total up from 38 to 40. The over is getting 71% of bets but 93% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy.