The Houston Texans are giving the Dallas Cowboys all sorts of trouble in Week 14 and have a shot at a huge upset. They lead 23-20 early in the fourth quarter. The Cowboys drove into Houston territory but settled for a field goal at the start of the final frame.
We hear plenty about “any given Sunday” and how upsets are always possible, but while Houston isn’t doing something unprecedented, it is something that rarely happens in the NFL. The Texans entered the game as a 17-point underdog against the Cowboys at DraftKings Sportsbook. Houston is likely to claim the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft while the Cowboys are likely going to end up in the playoffs. But for this week, the roles are reversed.
If the Texans hold on, this would go down on the short list of biggest upsets in NFL history. Odds from prior to the Supreme Court repealing PASPA in 2018 are not entirely perfect, but we have a good idea of where this stands. The biggest outright win as a betting underdog has come three times by 17.5-point underdogs. Washington beat the Cowboys with that spread in 1995, the Dolphins did it against the Patriots in 2019, and Jets did it against the Rams in 2020. The Texans would match the 1992 Jets who upset the eventual AFC champion Bills.
The biggest upset this season prior to this week was in Week 7 when the Bucs lost to the Panthers as a 13-point favorite.