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Who improved, who hurt chances in 2023 NFL Draft order coming out of Week 16

We discuss the projected NFL Draft order as it stands in Week 16 of the 2022 NFL season.

The Denver Broncos offense gets ready for a play during an NFL game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Denver Broncos on December 18, 2022 at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO. Photo by Steve Nurenberg/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Week 16 of the NFL season sees the Texans claiming the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Whether they win or lose against the Titans, they will retain that spot. They can clinch the No. 1 pick with a win and a Bears loss. Otherwise, they’ll have to wait until next week to secure the top spot.

The Broncos and Rams will be playing each other on Sunday, with the winner earning a better record but the loser earning a better projected draft pick. The losing team between the Saints and Browns will likely have a top-10 draft pick.

1 p.m. window update

The top of the draft order will remain the same coming out of Week 16, but it’s gotten a little more interesting. The Texans upset the Titans in Nashville to improve to 2-12-1. They remain in the No. 1 draft position, but with the Bears losing, Houston is less than a game up with two weeks remaining. The No. 1 pick race has gotten a lot more interesting. The rest of the top five will not be settled until after the Sunday and Monday games. The Broncos face the Rams, the Cardinals host the Bucs, and the Colts wrap things at home on Monday against the Chargers.

Saturday PM update

The 4 p.m. window featured four teams all in the playoff race with the 49ers beating the Commanders and the Cowboys beating the Eagles. The Christmas Eve slate concluded with the Steelers beating the Raiders. Both can be eliminated from playoff contention if the Dolphins and Chargers close out Week 16 with wins. That would lock Pittsburgh and Las Vegas into top 18 picks.

Sunday update

The Rams beat the Broncos on Christmas Day, and that coupled with the Cardinals loss to the Bucs moves the LA pick to No. 7, while the Denver pick and Arizona are tied for third and fourth.

Monday update

The Colts lost to the Chargers to close out Week 16. The result does not change the final draft order from the weekend, and so the Colts remain in the No. 5 position while the Chargers are No. 24.

Here’s the complete 2023 NFL Draft order. The first 18 picks are teams that would currently miss the playoffs. A division leader has a lower draft position than a non-playoff or wild card team with a better record because of the nature of playoff seeding. SOS serves as the tiebreaker and comes via Tankathon.

  1. Houston Texans, 2-12-1, .490
  2. Chicago Bears, 3-12, .567
  3. Denver Broncos (Seahawks have pick), 4-11, .490
  4. Arizona Cardinals, 4-11, .522
  5. Indianapolis Colts, 4-10-1, .510
  6. Atlanta Falcons, 5-10, .465
  7. Los Angeles Rams (Lions have pick), 5-10, .506
  8. Carolina Panthers, 6-9, .457
  9. Las Vegas Raiders, 6-9, .463
  10. New Orleans Saints (Eagles have pick), 6-9, .502
  11. Cleveland Browns (Texans have pick), 6-9, .522
  12. Seattle Seahawks, 7-8, .461
  13. Tennessee Titans, 7-8, .506
  14. New England Patriots, 7-8, .516
  15. New York Jets, 7-8, .529
  16. Pittsburgh Steelers, 7-8, .531
  17. Green Bay Packers, 7-8, .537
  18. Detroit Lions, 7-8, .541
  19. Jacksonville Jaguars, 7-8, .482
  20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7-8, .490
  21. Washington Commanders, 7-7-1, .537
  22. Miami Dolphins (Forfeit pick due to tampering), 8-7, .539
  23. New York Giants, 8-6-1, .533
  24. Los Angeles Chargers, 9-6, .435
  25. Baltimore Ravens, 10-5, .492
  26. San Francisco 49ers (Broncos have pick), 11-4, .414
  27. Dallas Cowboys, 11-4, .514
  28. Cincinnati Bengals, 11-4, .525
  29. Kansas City Chiefs, 12-3, .455
  30. Minnesota Vikings, 12-3, .480
  31. Buffalo Bills, 12-3, .514
  32. Philadelphia Eagles, 13-2, .475