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The history of the Super Bowl coin toss prop bet

Bettors have as close to a 50/50 chance of getting this one right as they will on any bet

Fantasy Feast Podcast | Every Skill Guy in SB LVI

UPDATE: The Rams picked tails and it came up heads. The Bengals elected to defer so the Rams will open the game with the ball.

The Super Bowl brings a lot of things with it— parties, football fans, marginally funny advertisements and of course, prop bets.

The Super Bowl is the dream for a prop bettor. There are bets for any and everything one can think of. From the length of the national anthem, who will be the first famous person shown on the broadcast and even what COVID variant will be the first one uttered by Al Michaels or Cris Collinsworth. Still, one prop bet tops them all — the iconic coin toss.

The coin toss is where the most action is for prop bets. People can even add it to the top of a major parlay, which is an extremely bold choice but hey, more power to you. It’s not exactly a 50/50 proposition like you would think, but it’s pretty close. According to a study from Stanford University, there’s a 51% chance the side that is facing up when the coin toss process starts will be the same one when it lands. So if the referee decides to have heads facing up as they flip it, that side will have the slightly smaller shot of landing face up when the coin hits the turf.

The NFC team has a massive lead in the coin toss department, going 37-18 all-time in winning the toss, so the Rams might be the move here. That doesn’t mean much of anything once the game itself starts though. Each team that has won the toss in the past eight years has lost the Super Bowl. So whoever wins the toss, throw a live moneyline bet on the other team.

The toss itself is pretty dead split in recent history too. In the last decade, there have been five heads winners and five tails winners. But whoever does win the toss, expect them to kick the ball off in the first half to get that sweet sweet extra possession to start the third quarter.