The Hawks and Hornets split their four-game season series, with the Hornets defeating the Hawks by 10 points in their final meeting on Mar. 16. The Hornets are 21-20 on the road this season, while the Hawks are 27-14 at home. The Hawks are 4.5-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 236.5.
Pick against the spread: Hawks -4.5
The Hornets are hoping for a better result this year in the play-in tournament after they got blasted by the Indiana Pacers last year in the 9/10 matchup. This season, Charlotte has showed it can play defense, which can carry it. But we also saw the Hornets’ perimeter defense fall flat towards the end of this season. The Hawks are one of the hottest teams entering the play-in tournament, winning their last four home games.
Atlanta is 23-18 against the spread at home this season and 19-15 ATS as the home favorite this season. The Hornets, however, are 22-16-3 ATS on the road this season and 15-14-2 ATS as road underdogs. Homecourt advantage has been an overwhelming factor for Atlanta and I think that plays itself out here.
Over/Under: Under 236.5
In their four regular season matchups this season, the total points scored were 220, 257, 204, and 222. The Hornets are 23-18 on the road this season when it comes to the over, while the Hawks are 23-18 at home when it comes to the over. I think this will be a high-scoring game between these two teams, but the under is the play.
Player Prop: Kevin Huerter over 12.5 points (-110)
If the Hawks want to advance to the next round of the play-in tourney, they are going to need Huerter and others to help Young with the scoring. Huerter has played well against the Hornets this season, averaging 18 points per game on 52.1% shooting from the field in four games. He has scored more than 12.5 points in three of those games and has gone over this prop in six out of his last 10 games.
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