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Errol Spence Jr. vs. Yordenis Ugas predictions: How the public is betting Saturday’s welterweight unification bout

We break down predictions for Saturday’s welterweight unification bout between Errol Spence Jr. and Yordenis Ugas.

Errol Spence Jr. and Yordenis Ugas pose with Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons (center) during the official weigh-in at Texas Live! on April 15, 2022 in Arlington, Texas. Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images

Errol Spence, Jr. and Yordenis Ugás face off Saturday evening in Arlington, Texas looking to unify three of the four recognized welterweight titles. The fighters are expected to head to the ring at approximately 11:30 p.m. ET on the Showtime PPV, and Spence is a sizable favorite.

Spence heads into the fight installed as a -600 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. Total rounds is installed at 10.5 with the over installed at -310 and the under installed at +245. The favored outcome is Spence by decision or technical decision at -155. Spence has had the more notable career to date, so it is no surprise the betting public is backing him in a big way.

Errol Spence, Jr. vs. Yordenis Ugás predictions for welterweight title bout

Moneyline

Spence (-600): 95% of handle, 90% of bets
Ugás (+425): 5% of handle, 10% of bets

Total rounds

Over 10.5 (-310): 90% of handle, 75% of bets
Under 10.5 (+245): 10% of handle, 25% of bets

Winning method

Spence by decision or technical decision (-155): 62% of handle, 47% of bets
Spence by KO, TKO, DQ (+225): 23% of handle, 31% of bets
Draw (+1800): 5% of handle, 4% of bets
Ugás by decision or technical decision (+600): 6% of handle, 13% of bets
Ugás by KO, TKO, DQ (+1200): 5% of handle, 5% of bets

Is the public right?

Spence is a sizable favorite because he’s had the better career and is viewed as the better favorite. It’s not surprising the betting public would be heavy on the chalk. Ugás got a big win over Manny Pacquiao in place of Spence last summer, but given where Pacquiao was at that point in his career, it was a statement win in name only.

Spence has won three-quarters of his fights by knockout, but Ugás has a solid chin and his four losses were all by decision. Spencer hasn’t fought since December 2020, so there could be some value in Ugás by decision if Spence gets off to a slow start. There also might be a little value in Spence by knockout if Ugás gets behind on the cards and gets aggressive. He could get sloppy and open himself up to a knockdown in that case. There’s not a ton of value to be had in this bout, but that’s something to consider.

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