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Packers win total prediction 2022: Picking Green Bay’s win total ahead of the NFL Draft

The Packers ended the 2021 regular season with 13 wins and a playoff berth. What will they do for an encore in 2022?

NFC Divisional Playoffs - San Francisco 49ers v Green Bay Packers Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images

As has become custom during the Matt LaFleur era, the Green Bay Packers won 13 games during the 2021 regular season and earned a playoff bye. That record largely reflected the play of Aaron Rodgers who went on to win league MVP honors for the second year in a row and fourth time overall. With the No. 1 seed secured, Green Bay seemed primed for a return to the Super Bowl.

Instead, the Packers again fell short, losing in the divisional round to the San Francisco 49ers. The defeat kicked off months of speculation about Rodgers’ future as well as that of several other stars on the roster. Eventually, Rodgers returned on a market-setting extension along with fellow All-Pro De’Vondre Campbell. However, wide receiver Davante Adams will spend the upcoming season elsewhere following a trade to the Las Vegas Raiders.

Let’s take a look at the latest DraftKings Sportsbook lines and see if the Packers can beat their 2022 win total. The odds below are as of March 28, 2022.

NFC North win totals

Green Bay Packers: 11 (Over -125, Under -105)
Minnesota Vikings: 9 (Over -110, Under -110)
Chicago Bears: 7 (Over -120, Under +100)
Detroit Lions: 6 (Over -115, Under -105)

Notable offseason moves so far

Rodgers signing a multiyear extension would have dominated this discussion if not for the subsequent trade of Adams. A first-team All-Pro wideout each of the last two seasons, Adams gave the Packers a go-to target in every situation. His departure as well as the loss of vertical threat Marquez Valdes-Scantling leaves the receiving corps in a concerning state. Campbell and breakout star corner Rasul Douglas return largely as the result of the salary-cap space freed by Adams’ departure, but that only negates the offensive concerns by so much.

Packers prediction: over 11 (-125)

The Packers might not look as dangerous as they did the past two seasons, but the rest of the NFC has declined to a far greater degree. The NFC North highlights those developments where two of the other teams (the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings) cleaned house in the front office and the coaching staff while the other (the Detroit Lions) remains in the early stages of a full rebuild. As long as Rodgers stays healthy, Green Bay has a favorable path to reaching their win total.

What moves might change our prediction?

The Packers still have time to add veteran wideouts via a trade or free agency as well as four top-59 picks in the upcoming draft. However, if they fail to adequately restock the receiving corps, their win total would appear much harder to reach.

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