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Per usual, I’ll put everything official up on Twitter that I bet on personally. This is a betting guide for this NBA card, and anything I’ve actually bet will include a unit amount.
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Miami Heat at Boston Celtics (Game 3 - Saturday)
GSW/BOS ML Parlay (-106) — 2-units
We’re sitting pretty in terms of series bets in both conferences at the moment, and these games get much tougher at this stage of the season. For that reason, I am starting to scale back on plays a bit. However, I think the favorites this weekend are in strong spots, and I also have a Friday night prop to add in there.
Let’s start with the parlay. The last nine NBA playoff games have been decided by nine or more points, and a large majority of them have been blowouts. Laying big numbers has been working in the NBA, and I do think Golden State and Boston ultimately cover. That said, Dallas and Miami are in bounce-back spots, and I think one of them has a chance to compete and take one of these games down to the wire. Ultimately, I am confident that the favorites prevail.
The Warriors’ death lineup is a terrible matchup for the Mavs, and should create enough offense to pull away at home on Friday. And the Celtics, while coming off an impressive road win, cannot afford to give home court right back to the Heat. The level they are playing at with their starting five healthy with the energy of that Saturday night TD Garden crowd should propel the C’s to a 2-1 series lead.
As for the prop, Dallas is going to live and die by the three-pointer. The Mavs shot just 11-for-48 from downtown in Game 1, but liked the looks they got. They may even attempt more in Game 2, and you have to think they’ll shoot a better percentage.
Bullock is essentially taking all his field goal attempts from downtown, and hasn’t been shy. He shot 3-of-10 from three in Game 1, cashing his over. It was the ninth playoff game he went over 2.5 triples out of the 14 Dallas has played. The 10 attempts in Game 1 were encouraging for this matchup, as the Golden State defense will be keyed in on Luka Doncic, creating these looks for the Mavs’ role players. Should see a lot of value here, and have to feel good about three of them finding the bottom of the net.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
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