Follow along on Twitter (@julianedlow) for any potential updates — things can always change with lineup moves leading up to tipoff. Here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Per usual, I’ll put everything official up on Twitter that I bet on personally. This is a betting guide for this NBA card, and anything I’ve actually bet will include a unit amount.
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Miami Heat at Boston Celtics
Celtics -8.5 (-110)
If you’ve been tailing futures and series plays, we’re already in position to make a little over 1.6-units here if the Celtics can close this out — and that’s with a Miami +550 ticket. It would feel a little silly to lay 8.5 points in this spot, but if you’re looking to play the game, the Celtics are the side.
This game opened 8.5, moved up to 9 and then back to 8.5. That tells me there is some resistance on the Heat, but the opening number says it all — Heat money is welcomed. That’s because the Celtics should dominate in this spot. Since Jimmy Butler hurt his knee, the Heat have not been able to buy a bucket, scoring a combined 162 points in Games 4 and 5. In 67 minutes, Butler is a combined 7-for-32 from the field with just 19 points. He’s not the same player, and Miami cannot win without him.
Boston has won its three games in this series by a combined 58 points, and all by at least 13 points. If and when the Celtics go on their second half run in this game, it’s going to be over. Miami is completely beaten down with injuries, and will be dealing with a rowdy atmosphere. I expect the Celtics to build upon their lead in the second half and run away with this one — similar to Game 7 against Milwaukee.
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Eastern Conference Finals MVP: Jayson Tatum (-215)
I’m personally not sure if I’m going to bet this yet. Laying -215 isn’t something I’d recommend often, but I do see value here. Tatum to win ECF MVP is essentially half the price of the moneyline tonight. If the C’s win, what are the odds Jaylen Brown actually wins MVP? I’d say not great. The C’s actually lost the game he scored 40 in.
As good as JB has been at times, this team goes as Tatum goes. He’s more well rounded on the glass, a far superior playmaker and the better defender. Tatum hoists the award if Boston wins the game, and we’re getting 50% off the ML. If the C’s unfortunately lose this one, you also still get to hold out hope and keep this ticket in pocket heading into Game 7.
Champion: Celtics (+120) — 1.5-units
This one I will put some coin on now. The Celtics are winning this series and going to the NBA Finals, and when they do, they’ll be around even money against the Golden State Warriors. I haven’t put out any public plays on the C’s to win it all, but I think they matchup really, really well against the Dubs, and we’ve seen that play out on the floor — Boston dominated in San Francisco back in mid-March. Just trying to get a bit of extra juice now on this series. Boston would be in a semi-tough spot in Game 1, but I think all the extra rest should benefit the Celtics most.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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