Safest 2022 NFL MVP bets

With the 2022 NFL season right around the corner, it’s a good time for a look at the early favorites to win the MVP award. This year’s list is going to look familiar. There are some old favorites like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, along with some young lions who have become MVP candidates year in and year out, like Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.

Here’s a look at some early favorites who are pretty safe bets to win the MVP award. Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills — +700

Allen’s stats were solid again last season, even if a loss in the divisional round was ultimately a disappointment. The Bills’ quarterback has passed for at least 4,400 yards and 36 touchdowns in each of his last two seasons. He’s good for at least five or six touchdowns on the ground too, and he posted an impressive 763 rushing yards last season too, a career high. His baseline numbers consistently put him among the top 10 quarterbacks, so he’s close to breaking through as a leader across the board. Plus, he plays on a team that’s very likely to win a lot of games, which always gets weighted, fairly or not, heavily by voters in the press.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs — +900

Mahomes won the award in 2018, his second season, when he threw 50 touchdown passes. What helps Mahomes this season is that, even after the loss of Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs have a more well-rounded group of wide receivers that are going to open up a lot more chapters in Andy Reid’s playbook.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers — +1000

Somewhat of a surprise entrant to the list of favorites, Herbert did throw for more than 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns last year, ranking him second and third in those categories, respectively.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers — +1000

The reigning MVP, two years in a row, could Rodgers do it again? There’s only been one three-peat for the MVP award, and it was a Packers quarterback. Brett Favre did it from 1995 through 1997, sharing it with Barry Sanders in the third season. Weighing down his odds just a bit is the loss of Devante Adams. Green Bay’s wide receiver group look a little suspect as we round our way into June. Still, this is Rodgers, and he could turn a no-name pass catcher into a household name this season.

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers — +1000

What’s the old saying? Never count out Touchdown Tom. He managed to get a few votes last season for the award, and could easily get the majority of them this year. It kind of has that final season swan song possibility, no? He seems to be immune to laws of natural aging.

Best Bet

This feels like a good year to bet on a breakout season from Josh Allen. The Bills got better during the offseason, and even with a tough schedule, we can see Allen putting up MVP numbers. On the other hand, nobody on this list has more offseason moves working in their favor than Patrick Mahomes. There’s also the little matter of precedent too, since he seems to be able to throw 38 touchdowns with his eyes closed.

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