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Weather forecast for 2022 Kentucky Derby

The biggest horse race in the world often has track conditions that will favor one horse over another. Here’s what to except from the heavens at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 7th.

Horses head down the stretch in front of the twin spires in the second race before the 146th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

Saturday, race day update: The current forecast calls for 61 degrees with winds of 7-8 mph and gusts of 10-20 mph. It will be overcast but it should be a dry 148th Run for the Roses.


The 148th running of the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks are unlikely to be under picturesque Louisville skies this year, as the forecast is for clouds and rain entering the biggest weekend in American horse racing.

The forecast doesn’t look great ahead of the Lillies for the Fillies on Friday, with scattered thunderstorms and rain projected ahead of the 5:51 p.m. ET post time. Expect temperatures in the high 60’s, but the weather might mean a delayed post time that could run well into the evening.

Those thunderstorms are expected to clear, so even if it’s under the lights at Churchill Downs, expect to see the race get completed today. But keep an eye on the horses that are good in the mud as the track might not be flawless for the three-year-old mares.

As for the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, the 6:57 ET post time should be under mostly cloudy skies with a double-digit wind out of the north-northeast. There’s a slight chance of rain of about 7%, but the track should be dry most of the day ahead of the Run for the Roses.