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Why the Buffalo Bills will and won’t go over 2022 win total

Josh Allen and the Bills hope to get over the hump and into the Super Bowl in 2022.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) sets to throw on a play that would go for a second quarter touchdown during a game between the Denver Broncos and the Buffalo Bills at Empower Field at Mile High on December 19, 2020 in Denver, Colorado. Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Buffalo Bills’ 2021-22 season ended with an unlucky flip of the coin in the AFC divisional game, when the Kansas City Chiefs reached the end zone first in overtime action to win by a controversial score of 42-36. Needless to say, the Bills will be back with a vengeance in the new year with that nightmare behind them.

We’ll take a look at the latest DraftKings Sportsbook lines and predict if the Bills can surpass their 2022 win total of 11.5.

2022 Bills schedule with odds

Bills schedule/odds

Week Date Opponent Spread
Week Date Opponent Spread
1 Sep. 8 at Los Angeles Rams (TNF) +1
2 Sep. 19 Tennessee Titans (MNF) -7
3 Sep. 25 at Miami Dolphins -3.5
4 Oct. 2 at Baltimore Ravens -1
5 Oct. 9 Pittsburgh Steelers -9.5
6 Oct. 16 at Kansas City Chiefs -1.5
8 Oct. 30 Green Bay Packers -4
9 Nov. 6 at New York Jets -7
10 Nov. 13 Minnesota Vikings -7.5
11 Nov. 20 Cleveland Browns
12 Nov. 24 at Detroit Lions (Thanksgiving) -8
13 Dec. 1 at New England Patriots (TNF) -3
14 Dec. 11 New York Jets -9.5
15 Dec. 17 or 18 Miami Dolphins -6
16 Dec. 24 at Chicago Bears (Sat) -7
17 Jan. 2 at Cincinnati Bengals (MNF) pk
18 Jan. 7 or 8 New England Patriots -7
Implied record 15-1-1

Why the Bills will go over their win total

The Bills have a number of their star players returning in 2022. The offense should be imposing once again, and will likely be top-5 caliber throughout the season. They swapped out Cole Beasley for Jamison Crowder in the slot to sharpen up the receiving corps for MVP candidate Josh Allen, and drafted Georgia RB James Cook to presumably command head coach Sean McDermott’s rugged backfield moving forward. Expectations couldn’t be higher for this early Super Bowl favorite, so anything below their win total cannot be justified.

Why the Bills will go under their win total

Buffalo’s most threatening stretch of games will most likely be their matchups between Weeks 3-6 (at Miami Dolphins, at Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers and at Chiefs). It’s never an easy task running into four potential playoff teams this early in the season, and depending on how the Bills fare could play a major factor down the road. They are entering the season as arguably the NFL’s best team, but one too many wins slipping through their fingertips could incite some added pressure when they reach the bottom half of the schedule.


Buffalo shares the 11.5 win total with only the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Though the bar is set the highest for these three teams, the Bills probably have the greatest odds to make it reality. They are 11-1 against the AFC East in the last two seasons, and while the division might have seen its fair share of notable developments (the Dolphins’ busy offseason, for one), it’s going to require every team’s best on a weekly basis to ultimately dethrone the Bills. Take the over 11.5 with gusto for the 2021-22 campaign.

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