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Why the Atlanta Falcons will and won’t go over 2022 win total

The Falcons take their first steps without Matt Ryan as QB since 2007.

Atlanta Falcons v San Francisco 49ers Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images

The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a 7-10 campaign, and third place finish in the NFC South. After several changes made to the organization this offseason, a rebuild is forthcoming, and prioritizing the development of their young talent is high on the agenda.

We’ll take a look at the latest DraftKings Sportsbook lines and predict if the Falcons can surpass their 2022 win total of 5.

2022 Falcons schedule with odds

Falcons schedule/odds

Week Date Opponent Odds
Week Date Opponent Odds
1 Sep. 11 vs. New Orleans Saints +4
2 Sep. 18 at Los Angeles Rams +13
3 Sep. 25 at Seattle Seahawks +3.5
4 Oct. 2 vs. Cleveland Browns
5 Oct. 9 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10.5
6 Oct. 16 vs. San Francisco 49ers +6.5
7 Oct. 23 at Cincinnati Bengals +10
8 Oct. 30 vs. Carolina Panthers pk
9 Nov. 6 vs. Los Angeles Chargers +6.5
10 Nov. 10 at Carolina Panthers (TNF) +3
11 Nov. 20 vs. Chicago Bears pk
12 Nov. 27 at Washington Commanders +5
13 Dec. 4 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5
14 BYE
15 Dec. 17 or 18 at New Orleans Saints +7
16 Dec. 24 at Baltimore Ravens (Sat) +7.5
17 Jan. 1 vs. Arizona Cardinals +3.5
18 Jan. 7 or 8 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5
.
Implied record 0-13-2

Why the Falcons will go over their win total

The Falcons parted ways with longtime franchise quarterback Matt Ryan — via trade with the Indianapolis Colts in March. They brought in Marcus Mariota in free agency, along with Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder in the draft to embark on what will essentially be their first training camp competition for the job under center in 14 years. With a transition of this enormity, it’s no easy task for any team to bounce back and surmount their win total from the previous season. Atlanta has a chance, but they are heavily unfavored in most of their scheduled games. An upset victory or two could push them over the top.

Why the Falcons will go under their win total

An offense that will likely start either seasoned veteran Mariota or rookie Ridder is far from ideal, especially for a team whose defense allowed the third-most points to opponents in 2021. It should be fun to monitor the growth of Kyle Pitts and Drake London — both of whom will likely become the Falcons’ best long-term pieces. But once again, it’s going to be a process for a true identity to take shape, and it’d simply be wishful thinking to assume that this team can hit the ground running without a few bumps in the road.

Prediction: Over 6 wins

With Atlanta’s win total set at 5, it’s a realistic goal for them to hit the over. They reached the 7-mark last season, despite seven total games on their schedule against teams that made the playoffs. Head coach Arthur Smith is especially good at devising successful schemes, and he’s proven in the past that he can catapult his team beyond expectations. He served as the Tennessee Titans’ offensive coordinator in 2019 and 2020 and reached the playoffs both times. If the Falcons play to their strength (offense), and can find a way to start off strong, there is no reason why they can’t hang around in most of their games to exceed five victories.

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