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Why the Denver Broncos will and won’t go over 2022 win total

The Broncos finally have their viable solution at quarterback since Peyton Manning, but will the addition prove sufficient to overcome the NFL’s most competitive division?

Jun 6, 2022; Englewood, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) drops back to throw the ball during OTA workouts at the UC Health Training Center. Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Along with the rest of the AFC West, the Denver Broncos made transformative moves this offseason. After years of poor play under center, the team committed to improving the quarterback position, nearly landing reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers before ultimately acquiring Russell Wilson. Along with other changes, the Broncos look as talented as they have since their victory in Super Bowl 50.

Let’s take a look at the latest DraftKings Sportsbook lines and predict if the Broncos can surpass their 2022 win total of 10.

2022 Broncos schedule with odds

Broncos schedule/odds

Week Date Opponent Spread
Week Date Opponent Spread
1 Sep. 12 at Seattle Seahawks (MNF) -4
2 Sep. 18 Houston Texans -10.5
3 Sep. 25 San Francisco 49ers -2.5
4 Oct. 2 at Las Vegas Raiders pk
5 Oct. 6 Indianapolis Colts (TNF) -3
6 Oct. 17 at Los Angeles Chargers (MNF) +3
7 Oct. 23 New York Jets -7.5
8 Oct. 30 vs Jacksonville Jaguars (Wembley) -6.5
9 BYE
10 Nov. 13 at Tennessee Titans pk
11 Nov. 20 Las Vegas Raiders -3
12 Nov. 27 at Carolina Panthers -4
13 Dec. 4 at Baltimore Ravens +1.5
14 Dec. 11 Kansas City Chiefs pk
15 Dec. 18 Arizona Cardinals -4
16 Dec. 25 at Los Angeles Rams +3.5
17 Jan. 1 at Kansas City Chiefs +4.5
18 Jan. 7/8 Los Angeles Chargers pk
.
Implied record 9-4-3

Why the Broncos will go over their win total

In the Broncos’ post-Peyton Manning period, the quarterback position has provided their primary obstacle. Denver’s cavalcade of mediocrity under center has included Trevor Siemian, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, and host of other easily forgettable signal-callers. Against that backdrop, Wilson’s arrival looks like a genuinely transformational move. Not only does he provide the offense with a stabilizing presence, but he should also help lift a talented receiving corps that has previously underachieved. That alone should net the team a few additional wins, not to mention the improvements made in the front-seven.

Why the Broncos will go under their win total

The Kansas City Chiefs might have traded Tyreek Hill this offseason, but they remain one of the Super Bowl front-runners in the conference. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Chargers elevated the AFC West into an arms race with the acquisitions of J.C. Jackson, Khalil Mack, and Sebastian Joseph-Day. The Broncos have the talent to compete with either team, but can they win more than half of those matchups?

Prediction

For all the progress the Broncos made this offseason, their direct competition made comparable or superior improvements. By consensus, the Chiefs and Chargers possess superior rosters and have returning coaching staffs. And while the Las Vegas Raiders trail the AFC West in win total, they come off a playoff appearance and remain competitive. The team that wins this division might only have 10 or 11 wins and, unless one believes Denver will take the crown, the under looks like the smarter play.

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