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Why the New England Patriots will and won’t go over 2022 win total

The Patriots and Mac Jones hope to take a step forward in 2022.

NFL: JUN 08 New England Patriots Minicamp Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The New England Patriots ended the 2021 season with a 10-7 record and finished second in the AFC East. Behind rookie quarterback Mac Jones the Patriots secured a Wild Card berth, where they would eventually fall to the Buffalo Bills 47-17.

The biggest offseason change for New England came by way of their coaching staff. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels left the Patriots to become the head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders, leaving behind a void in the offensive playc-alling. Joe Judge and Matt Patricia are both expected to have prominent roles in the Patriots’ offense that enters year two with Jones under center.

2022 Patriots schedule with odds

Patriots schedule/odds

Week Date Opponent Odds
Week Date Opponent Odds
1 Sep. 11 at Miami Dolphins +3
2 Sep. 18 at Pittsburgh Steelers -1
3 Sep. 25 vs. Baltimore Ravens pk
4 Oct. 2 at Green Bay Packers +5
5 Oct. 9 vs. Detroit Lions -6.5
6 Oct. 16 at Cleveland Browns
7 Oct. 24 vs. Chicago Bears (MNF) -6
8 Oct. 30 at New York Jets -2.5
9 Nov. 6 vs. Indianapolis Colts pk
10 BYE
11 Nov. 20 vs. New York Jets -6
12 Nov. 24 at Minnesota Vikings (Thanksgiving) +1.5
13 Dec. 1 vs. Buffalo Bills (TNF) +3
14 Dec. 12 at Arizona Cardinals (MNF) +2.5
15 Dec. 18 at Las Vegas Raiders +3
16 Dec. 24 vs. Cincinnati Bengals (Sat) +1
17 Jan. 1 vs. Miami Dolphins -1.5
18 Jan. 7/8 at Buffalo Bills +7
Implied record 6-8-2

Why the Patriots will go over their win total

The win total for New England is set at 8.5 wins per DraftKings Sportsbook. The Patriots managed to go 10-7 in Jones’ rookie season, which included wins in which New England opted to have Jones simply hand the ball off and punish their opponents on the ground. Now the second-year quarterback enters 2022 with knowledge of the playbook under his belt, alongside the return additions of Trent Brown and James White. Despite the loss of McDaniels, Bill Belichick is more than experienced in the Patriots’ offense and should do well to maximize Jones’ strengths in year two.

Why the Patriots will go under their win total

With the exception of the New York Jets who are still in the early rebuilding stages, the remainder of the AFC East all worked to get better in the offseason. The Bills signed Von Miller in free agency and the Miami Dolphins traded for the speedy Tyreek Hill. It’s a subtle arms race out in the AFC East. To win the division will require Jones to make more plays in the pocket and his success is predicated on his ability to adapt to his opponents. Year two may be too early of a tall task to ask of him, especially with the departure of McDaniels.

Prediction: Under 8.5 wins

It’s hard to bet against Belichick but New England will see the Bills twice in the regular season and could very well split their series with the Dolphins. Road trips to face the Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals could leave the Patriots at a quarterback disadvantage in both those scenarios. New England has the 25th hardest strength of schedule for a reason, and I could see them finishing the regular season with under 8.5 wins.

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