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Why the Kansas City Chiefs will and won’t go over 2022 win total

We discuss the Kansas City Chiefs win total and whether they will surpass it or fall short.

Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs throws a pass during the first quarter of the AFC Championship Game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Arrowhead Stadium on January 30, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri, United States. Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images

The Kansas City Chiefs started the 2021 season with a close win against the Cleveland Browns but came up just short against the Baltimore Ravens. The NFL favorites saw them drop a divisional game in Week 3 to the Los Angeles Chargers. Through seven weeks, they were 3-4. Kansas City won nine of their final 10 games to finish 12-5 atop the AFC West. Their season ended in the AFC Championship game when they lost 27-24 to the Cincinnati Bengals.

In the offseason, Kansas City made a big move trading away former star wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins. In the 2022 NFL Draft, the Chiefs shored up their defense and picked up Western Michigan WR Skyy Moore. He wasn’t the only pass-catching addition of their offseason. They signed JuJu Smith-Schuster to a one-year, $10.75 million deal while Marquez Valdes-Scantling inked a three-year, $30 million contract. They won’t be able to replace Hill, but this will be a new-look Chiefs offense for 2022.

2022 Chiefs schedule with odds

Chiefs schedule/odds

Week Date Opponent
Week Date Opponent
1 Sep. 11 at Arizona Cardinals
2 Sep. 15 Los Angeles Chargers (Thu)
3 Sep. 25 at Indianapolis Colts
4 Oct. 2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5 Oct. 10 Las Vegas Raiders (Mon)
6 Oct. 16 vs. Buffalo Bills
7 Oct. 23 at San Francisco 49ers
9 Nov. 6 Tennessee Titans
10 Nov. 13 Jacksonville Jaguars
11 Nov. 20 at Los Angeles Chargers
12 Nov. 27 Los Angeles Rams
13 Dec. 4 at Cincinnati Bengals
14 Dec. 11 at Denver Broncos
15 Dec. 18 at Houston Texans
16 Dec. 24 Seattle Seahawks (Sat)
17 Jan. 1 Denver Broncos
18 Jan. 7/8 at Las Vegas Raiders
Implied record

Why the Chiefs will go over their win total

Kansas City has a win total set to 10.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Chiefs have taken the NFL by storm since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starting quarterback. Whether it is throwing the ball underhanded, with his eyes closed or to a wide receiver he isn’t even looking at, Mahomes has been putting up video game numbers in real life. It is very difficult to count them out or take the under on their win total if Mahomes is under center. They still have an above-average receiving corps and a good defense. Even with the improving AFC West, Kansas City is the team to beat in the NFL.

Why the Chiefs will go under their win total

Kansas City was 3-4 through their first seven games. If they get out to another slow start, they don’t have as explosive an offense to help them claw back into their season. The Chiefs are no longer with the Honey Badger, Tyrann Mathieu, in the secondary. If their defense crumbles and isn’t able to be more than their good defensive line, wins are going to be tough to come by in a vastly improved AFC West.

Prediction: Over 10.5 wins

The Chiefs have a Week 8 bye this season and their record at that time will determine what their season outlook should be. They face the Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Chargers, Indianapolis Colts, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Las Vegas Raiders, Buffalo Bills and the San Francisco 49ers in their first seven games. They will likely come out of this stretch 6-1, but they could easily find themselves 2-5 in the same stretch. The back half of their season is highlighted by games against the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals.

Until Mahomes decides to look human, I will continue to treat him like the robot that he is. Their defense could fall apart, but they have shown recently that even a slow start can be overcome. Kansas City will win at least 11 games this season.

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