Follow along on Twitter (@julianedlow) for any potential updates or added bets. I’ve put a handful of plays out on Twitter thus far, and could always add or even hedge off of some of our current plays. Here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook as for what’s currently offered, as well as a detailed recap of what I’ve already played.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All bets below are for 1-unit unless noted!
2022 NBA Draft Bets — Still Available
I put out the three plays below on Wednesday morning on Twitter, and all are still priced right around where I played them.
Wesley has already been bet down from 23.5, but I think we can still feel pretty comfortable about him going in the 15-21 range (specifically 18-21). I wouldn’t bet anything below 21.5, so this will be the key number. Wesley is an explosive guard out of Notre Dame that is gaining steam in this draft.
I like Duren as a player, and don’t think we saw nearly what he’s capable of while playing at Memphis in college. However, there’s only so many spots he fits in the top-10 — No. 9 and 10 being the only real landing spots. With a lot of talent up near the top, I think we see Duren more in the 11-15 range of this draft. So we’re not off by much here, but I’d say there’s a much better shot of him going outside of the top-10 then inside, and the price does not reflect that. I think Jeremy Sochan should come off the board first.
Branham came on really strong for Ohio State to end the season, but saying he’ll be a lottery pick is just too strong for me. We have a slew of bigs that could be targeted in the late lottery, and I also expect some higher caliber wings to still be on the board here. Branham’s range feels more like 15-23 to me, with an outside shot at going No. 14 as the path to this losing. Worth the juice to play outside the lottery.
2022 NBA Draft Bets — Given on Unreasonable Odds Podcast 6/21
Gave this out on the pod and within about 10 hours this one moved to -250. Not much we can do now, but I think Mathurin is likely to go No. 5 or 6 overall if you have a way you want to play that. He’s probably the best wing prospect in this draft, and outside of the top-3, he’s right behind Jaden Ivey for me. Detroit and Indiana have both been linked to Mathurin.
Williams was one of the highest risers in this class. From second-round pick, to a draft prop in the 20’s, to being now bet down to 15.5. We can’t play it at 15.5, but at 18.5 on the podcast, I was confident enough to fire at some serious juice. If for some reason we see a 16.5 here with -125 or so on the under, I’d be in for a play.
Griffin is a year younger and the better shooter, but everything else points to Davis being the better prospect. The Wisconsin product is more polished, a far better defender and rebounder, and plays with more toughness. This has been bet up to -200, so no play here unless it comes back down. Maybe only a pick separates them in the end, but I could see Davis going somewhere between 9-11, with Griffin’s window starting around No. 11 — but I think Griffin has the potential to slip.
2022 NBA Draft Bets — Previously given on Twitter/Articles
Obviously, these plays are no longer worthy of bets at their current prices, although Dieng might be a tiny bit of meat left on the bone with Dieng if we get some encouraging news. But I’m sharing them here just so we can track all plays in one place.
I got in on Smith +100 back on May 16, then again at -125 in my article on May 18 following the lottery. The last play was simply grabbing the value on -140 on May 24 when other shops were showing -200, and he flew to over -500 from there.
However, during draft week all the steam on Paolo Banchero caused Smith to go as low as -150 again, so you could’ve potentially gotten back in on him. Ultimately, I am going to hold firm here unless we get anything more concrete on Banchero going first overall. I believe Smith to be the pick if Orlando is making it.
Dieng is that classic international prospect that’s unknown, but flown up draft boards throughout this process due to his high upside. A team looking to draft on a high ceiling player will look to Dieng somewhere in the 8-12 range in this draft. I put these plays out on Monday evening, and we had a ton of movement by Tuesday morning. Now on Wednesday Dieng is juiced to the under at 11.5, and near even money to go top-10. However, if we get more concrete news on Dieng rising, he still could be worth firing at +110 for the top-10.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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