All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Per usual, I’ll put everything official up on Twitter that I bet on personally. This is a betting guide for this NBA card, and anything I’ve actually bet will include a unit amount.
Celtics -3.5 (-110) — 1.5-units
Celtics 1H -2.5 (-110) — 1-unit
The Celtics off a loss has been a tremendous spot, not only this postseason, but dating all the way back to January. Sticking to these playoffs, the C’s are 6-0 straight up and against the spread following a loss. Sunday’s letdown at Golden State was the third time Boston has lost by double-digits in this postseason, and they’ve followed up the previous two with victories by 13 and 25 points.
In the games after those six postseason losses, the Celtics have had halftime leads of 25, 10, 25, 24 and six points, and trailed by a single point in one of them. The Warriors are absolutely the best competition Boston has faced in these playoffs, but the Celtics are going to come home looking to strike early in this one. The C’s have started strong in both games this series, and I expect them to again.
Where these games get interesting is in the third quarter, where we all know Golden State is an insane plus-35 through just two games. First and foremost, we know this has to be a point of emphasis for the C’s in this game. The focus coming back out of the locker room has to be there. Also, the Warriors have been a much better third quarter team at home. Their numbers drop off a lot in that quarter on the road, whereas Boston is a pretty good third quarter team at home. I think the resistance from the C’s in that third period will be enough to get them to the finish line in this one.
Another reason I like the Boston side of this game is because I don’t expect Green to be able to put his stamp on this contest like he was able to in Game 2. Draymond mucked up the game, and I think that’ll be much more difficult in the road atmosphere of Game 3 — both the Celtics and officials should be ready for it. A bonus part of the cap here is that Green could easily get in early foul trouble to help this one stay under, but I like the play a lot on numbers alone.
Green scored a combined eight points in the two regular season matchups against the C’s, then scored just four points in Game 1 of this series. His only over came in Game 2 when he scored nine points and got over by the hook — however, he did it on an uncharacteristic 5-of-7 free throws. The seven attempts were the third-most he’s taken in a game this season, and the most Draymond has attempted since November 10. Also, making five of them is about six percentage points above his season average. Take those attempts out, and he stays under again.
Still, that leaves Draymond averaging 5.25 points against the Celtics this season. He’s shooting 4-of-15 from the field in the series, including 0-for-5 from deep. Green can impact the game in plenty of ways, but scoring just hasn’t been one of them, particularly in this matchup. After a nine-point “outburst” in Game 2, it’s a good time to go the other way here on an under.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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