All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Per usual, I’ll put everything official up on Twitter that I bet on personally. This is a betting guide for this NBA card, and anything I’ve actually bet will include a unit amount.
Celtics -3.5 (-110) — 2-units
I put this one out on Twitter when the line opened following Game 3 with the idea we’d see movement on Boston. Obviously, I’m comfortable playing it at the current number of -4 as I write this up on Thursday afternoon, and hope the hook doesn’t come into play. I understand the trend that’s on the line here — the Celtics improved to 7-0 SU/ATS off a loss in the postseason in Game 3, and now it’s the Warriors’ turn to respond. Of course, Golden State is 5-0 off a loss in these playoffs.
But I don’t think the Celtics can be complacent and just let that trend ride out and try to start stealing more road games. They took home court advantage in Game 1, and need to make that count. Since the first-round sweep, Boston has won consecutive games once in each round of the playoffs, and this is going to be the best chance to do just that in the final round.
The Celtics seem to have found something in Game 3, and I think for the first time rather than the back-and-forth we’ve seen in this round, some of that momentum can carry into Game 4. The broadcast did a very good job of highlighting the mismatch the Celtics have in terms of size and athleticism. They need to continue to use that advantage, and the fuel from the Friday night home crowd should help them do so. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are playing aggressive — minimal complaining to the officials and more going to the basket looking to score.
To this stage in the series, the extended rest has probably favored Boston. Now we’ve reached the only point in the Finals in which there is only one day between games, and it might be giving the Celtics an advantage. Robert Williams finally looked healthy, and played a massive role in dominating the paint in Game 3. His health is a key factor in Game 4.
On the Golden State side, Stephen Curry suffered a late ankle injury. All reports indicate that he’s fine, and we know he’s certainly playing in the game, but will he feel the quick turnaround? Klay Thompson finally found his stroke in Game 3 after some dreadful shooting in the first two games. Will he also feel the quick turnaround?
The home court in Boston proved to be more valuable in Game 3 than home court was in San Francisco. What we’re seeing is that if the Celtics play their best game, they are better than the Warriors. While they’ve squandered massive opportunities at home in each of the last two rounds, I’m going to bet that they eventually get it right when it matters most.
Turnovers are obviously the key to this series. When Boston turns it over more than 15 times they are 0-5 this postseason — anything fewer and the C’s are 14-2. It matters even more in this series, because one of the only ways Golden State has been able to generate offense is off of those turnovers. Protect the ball and win the game. Could be as simple as that for the Celtics.
We’ve successfully faded Green in Games 1 and 3, and we’ll go back to it in Game 4. The dude just isn’t a scorer, and the matchup is dreadful for him. His point totals in five games against the Celtics are six, two, four, nine and two. That’s good for 4.6 points per, and the only time he went over 7.5 was when he attempted seven free throws — something he hadn’t done since November 10. Bounce-back games as a scorer from guys like Curry and Thompson we know can happen. Draymond isn’t that type of player. Going right back to this one without much concern.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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