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2022 Advanced Stats for AAC Football

The 2022 college football season is fast approaching. We’ll take a look at advanced stats that you’ll need to know for the American Conference heading into the new campaign.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 27 Tulsa at SMU Photo by George Walker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The American Athletic Conference is gearing up for its final season under its current alignment and plenty of factors like returning production and SP+ could make for an interesting fall. There’s an established hierarchy at the top of the conference but some of these elements could allow for a few surprise teams to rise.

Below, we’ll look at a handful of advanced stats for the AAC ahead of the 2022 season.

SP+ rankings

Fresh off its run to the College Football Playoff, Cincinnati enters the new year with the highest SP+ projection at No. 11. The Bearcats had a program record nine players taken in the 2022 NFL Draft, so there will be plenty of new faces operating on both sides of the ball. Houston and UCF, the two other projected contenders, will enter the season as top 50 teams with potential to rise as the year moves along.

SMU is interesting as it has the second-highest preseason projection 33. The Mustangs are under new leadership with first-year head coach Rhett Lashlee and could be explosive offensively with Tanner Mordecai returning at quarterback.

2022 AAC SP+ Rankings

Ranking Team Offense SP+ Defense SP+
Ranking Team Offense SP+ Defense SP+
11 Cincinnati 36.4 (18) 19.5 (19)
81 ECU 26.5 (75) 28.7 (79)
44 Houston 31.0 (46) 22.9 (42)
59 Memphis 30.4 (52) 26.5 (67)
113 Navy 18.0 (122) 30.2 (89)
33 SMU 36.6 (17) 25.6 (62)
118 Temple 17.6 (125) 31.9 (100)
71 Tulane 31.6 (41) 31.3 (95)
79 Tulsa 25.7 (80) 27.1 (73)
39 UCF 30.8 (48) 21.3 (32)
89 USF 28.1 (68) 33.4 (106)

Returning production

A team that could stand to benefit from continuity is USF, who leads the league in returning production at 85%. The Bulls have a several returning starters on both sides of the ball along with veteran transfers like quarterback Gerry Bohanon. They are looking to take a major step forward in the third year of Jeff Scott’s tenure.

Following them are the likes of SMU, Tulane, and ECU, all of whom have returning production of over 70%.

2022 AAC Returning Production

Team Overall Returning Production National Rank Offense National Rank Defense National Rank Offense Overall Returning QB % Returning OL % Defense Overall Kicker Starts Punter Starts
Team Overall Returning Production National Rank Offense National Rank Defense National Rank Offense Overall Returning QB % Returning OL % Defense Overall Kicker Starts Punter Starts
Cincinnati 60% 82 58% 82 51% 110 8 51.98% 91.21% 4 5 14
East Carolina 71% 36 69% 51 70% 38 6 98.82% 55.56% 7 12 0
Houston 64% 71 70% 46 56% 95 6 99.78% 60.48% 6 0 14
Memphis 69% 43 71% 45 57% 88 7 95.73% 68.15% 4 12 12
Navy 53% 109 57% 84 50% 111 4 97.94% 52.50% 4 12 12
SMU 73% 26 68% 55 73% 30 4 98.93% 49.36% 7 0 12
Temple 66% 56 62% 73 61% 74 6 57.97% 59.07% 6 12 0
Tulane 71% 37 89% 3 61% 71 8 99.47% 79.10% 5 3 0
Tulsa 57% 92 54% 96 49% 114 5 100.00% 31.25% 2 12 12
UCF 69% 42 70% 47 67% 52 7 72.89% 65.47% 7 13 13
USF 85% 3 84% 8 74% 26 8 92.38% 76.47% 8 12 12

Positional talent data

From a position by position breakdown, UCF may have the best all-around roster in the entire league. The metrics have the Knights possessing the highest ranked running back, receiver, defensive line, and linebacker groups in the AAC.

To no surprise, Cincinnati is breathing down their necks even with all of its departures from last season while SMU sits right behind.

2022 AAC Positional Talent

Team Team Talent National Rank Team Talent Player Average Team Composite National Rank Team Composite Player Average 6 Year Average Recrutiing Class Rank
Team Team Talent National Rank Team Talent Player Average Team Composite National Rank Team Composite Player Average 6 Year Average Recrutiing Class Rank
Cincinnati 52 85.52 48 86.84 53.83
East Carolina 75 82.97 86 82.49 83.33
Houston 79 84.12 52 86.08 71.83
Memphis 63 84.14 67 84.78 64.17
Navy 129 76.71 148 80.56 116.5
SMU 58 85.52 50 86.08 69.5
Temple 81 82.83 96 83.57 102.83
Tulane 74 83.34 78 84.35 83.17
Tulsa 98 81.59 117 82.3 107.67
UCF 48 85.98 37 87.71 57.33
USF 65 84.68 72 83.53 76

Latest win totals from DraftKings Sportsbook

2022 AAC Win Totals

Team Over Under
Team Over Under
Cincinnati Over 9 -130 Under 9 +110
East Carolina Over 6.5 +120 Under 6.5 -140
Houston Over 9 -120 Under 9 +100
Memphis Over 7.5 +120 Under 7.5 -140
Navy Over 4.5 +105 Under 4.5 -125
SMU Over 7 -105 Under 7 -115
South Florida Over 4.5 -110 Under 4.5 -110
Temple Over 2.5 -140 Under 2.5 +120
Tulane Over 6 +110 Under 6 -130
Tulsa Over 6 +100 Under 6 -120
UCF Over 8.5 -125 Under 8.5 +105

Returning production and positional talent data compiled by Seth Varnadore. You can find him on Twitter and YouTube at Varnadore Films where he does game film breakdowns of teams all over college football.

SP+ data compiled by ESPN’s Bill Connelly.