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The American Athletic Conference is gearing up for its final season under its current alignment and plenty of factors like returning production and SP+ could make for an interesting fall. There’s an established hierarchy at the top of the conference but some of these elements could allow for a few surprise teams to rise.
Below, we’ll look at a handful of advanced stats for the AAC ahead of the 2022 season.
SP+ rankings
Fresh off its run to the College Football Playoff, Cincinnati enters the new year with the highest SP+ projection at No. 11. The Bearcats had a program record nine players taken in the 2022 NFL Draft, so there will be plenty of new faces operating on both sides of the ball. Houston and UCF, the two other projected contenders, will enter the season as top 50 teams with potential to rise as the year moves along.
SMU is interesting as it has the second-highest preseason projection 33. The Mustangs are under new leadership with first-year head coach Rhett Lashlee and could be explosive offensively with Tanner Mordecai returning at quarterback.
2022 AAC SP+ Rankings
| Ranking | Team | Offense SP+ | Defense SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ranking | Team | Offense SP+ | Defense SP+ |
| 11 | Cincinnati | 36.4 (18) | 19.5 (19) |
| 81 | ECU | 26.5 (75) | 28.7 (79) |
| 44 | Houston | 31.0 (46) | 22.9 (42) |
| 59 | Memphis | 30.4 (52) | 26.5 (67) |
| 113 | Navy | 18.0 (122) | 30.2 (89) |
| 33 | SMU | 36.6 (17) | 25.6 (62) |
| 118 | Temple | 17.6 (125) | 31.9 (100) |
| 71 | Tulane | 31.6 (41) | 31.3 (95) |
| 79 | Tulsa | 25.7 (80) | 27.1 (73) |
| 39 | UCF | 30.8 (48) | 21.3 (32) |
| 89 | USF | 28.1 (68) | 33.4 (106) |
Returning production
A team that could stand to benefit from continuity is USF, who leads the league in returning production at 85%. The Bulls have a several returning starters on both sides of the ball along with veteran transfers like quarterback Gerry Bohanon. They are looking to take a major step forward in the third year of Jeff Scott’s tenure.
Following them are the likes of SMU, Tulane, and ECU, all of whom have returning production of over 70%.
2022 AAC Returning Production
| Team | Overall Returning Production | National Rank | Offense | National Rank | Defense | National Rank | Offense Overall | Returning QB % | Returning OL % | Defense Overall | Kicker Starts | Punter Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Overall Returning Production | National Rank | Offense | National Rank | Defense | National Rank | Offense Overall | Returning QB % | Returning OL % | Defense Overall | Kicker Starts | Punter Starts |
| Cincinnati | 60% | 82 | 58% | 82 | 51% | 110 | 8 | 51.98% | 91.21% | 4 | 5 | 14 |
| East Carolina | 71% | 36 | 69% | 51 | 70% | 38 | 6 | 98.82% | 55.56% | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| Houston | 64% | 71 | 70% | 46 | 56% | 95 | 6 | 99.78% | 60.48% | 6 | 0 | 14 |
| Memphis | 69% | 43 | 71% | 45 | 57% | 88 | 7 | 95.73% | 68.15% | 4 | 12 | 12 |
| Navy | 53% | 109 | 57% | 84 | 50% | 111 | 4 | 97.94% | 52.50% | 4 | 12 | 12 |
| SMU | 73% | 26 | 68% | 55 | 73% | 30 | 4 | 98.93% | 49.36% | 7 | 0 | 12 |
| Temple | 66% | 56 | 62% | 73 | 61% | 74 | 6 | 57.97% | 59.07% | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Tulane | 71% | 37 | 89% | 3 | 61% | 71 | 8 | 99.47% | 79.10% | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Tulsa | 57% | 92 | 54% | 96 | 49% | 114 | 5 | 100.00% | 31.25% | 2 | 12 | 12 |
| UCF | 69% | 42 | 70% | 47 | 67% | 52 | 7 | 72.89% | 65.47% | 7 | 13 | 13 |
| USF | 85% | 3 | 84% | 8 | 74% | 26 | 8 | 92.38% | 76.47% | 8 | 12 | 12 |
Positional talent data
From a position by position breakdown, UCF may have the best all-around roster in the entire league. The metrics have the Knights possessing the highest ranked running back, receiver, defensive line, and linebacker groups in the AAC.
To no surprise, Cincinnati is breathing down their necks even with all of its departures from last season while SMU sits right behind.
2022 AAC Positional Talent
| Team | Team Talent National Rank | Team Talent Player Average | Team Composite National Rank | Team Composite Player Average | 6 Year Average Recrutiing Class Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Team Talent National Rank | Team Talent Player Average | Team Composite National Rank | Team Composite Player Average | 6 Year Average Recrutiing Class Rank |
| Cincinnati | 52 | 85.52 | 48 | 86.84 | 53.83 |
| East Carolina | 75 | 82.97 | 86 | 82.49 | 83.33 |
| Houston | 79 | 84.12 | 52 | 86.08 | 71.83 |
| Memphis | 63 | 84.14 | 67 | 84.78 | 64.17 |
| Navy | 129 | 76.71 | 148 | 80.56 | 116.5 |
| SMU | 58 | 85.52 | 50 | 86.08 | 69.5 |
| Temple | 81 | 82.83 | 96 | 83.57 | 102.83 |
| Tulane | 74 | 83.34 | 78 | 84.35 | 83.17 |
| Tulsa | 98 | 81.59 | 117 | 82.3 | 107.67 |
| UCF | 48 | 85.98 | 37 | 87.71 | 57.33 |
| USF | 65 | 84.68 | 72 | 83.53 | 76 |
Latest win totals from DraftKings Sportsbook
2022 AAC Win Totals
| Team | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over | Under |
| Cincinnati | Over 9 -130 | Under 9 +110 |
| East Carolina | Over 6.5 +120 | Under 6.5 -140 |
| Houston | Over 9 -120 | Under 9 +100 |
| Memphis | Over 7.5 +120 | Under 7.5 -140 |
| Navy | Over 4.5 +105 | Under 4.5 -125 |
| SMU | Over 7 -105 | Under 7 -115 |
| South Florida | Over 4.5 -110 | Under 4.5 -110 |
| Temple | Over 2.5 -140 | Under 2.5 +120 |
| Tulane | Over 6 +110 | Under 6 -130 |
| Tulsa | Over 6 +100 | Under 6 -120 |
| UCF | Over 8.5 -125 | Under 8.5 +105 |
Returning production and positional talent data compiled by Seth Varnadore. You can find him on Twitter and YouTube at Varnadore Films where he does game film breakdowns of teams all over college football.
SP+ data compiled by ESPN’s Bill Connelly.