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Going over home run totals for each player in 2022 Home Run Derby

We take a look at over/under HR totals for each player in the HR Derby on Monday night.

Julio Rodriguez #44 of the Seattle Mariners runs the bases after hitting a grand slam home run against the Texas Rangers during the eighth inning at Globe Life Field on July 15, 2022 in Arlington, Texas. Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images

The 2022 Home Run Derby will take place on Monday, July 18 at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN. The field is set, and we have both ends of the spectrum represented as rookie Julio Rogriguez, and 22-year veteran Albert Pujols will be participating. Pete Alonso, Corey Seager, Jose Ramirez, Kyle Schwarber, Juan Soto and Ronald Acuna Jr. will round out the field.

This is the first derby that will be held at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California. The problem with predicting totals is that once the first batter in the matchup sets his total, the other batter just has to surpass it by one, which could lower the total numbers hit. Not only do you need to guess around how many they will hit, but you have to factor in the hitter’s ability to make it to the final round.

Seager has the most experience playing at the stadium as he played the first seven years of his career playing with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Alonso comes in as the back-to-back champion, so he also has upside to surpass his total. For reference, Alonso hit 74 home runs in 2021 and hit 57 total in 2019. Soto hit 46 overall last year, with Schwarber clobbering 55 in 2018.

Pujols matches up with Schwarber in the first round, and I think he hits under 18.5 home runs and is eliminated. The toughest matchup to gauge is Jose Ramirez against Juan Soto. They meet up in the first round, and Ramirez’s total shows that DraftKings Sportsbook doesn’t predict that he leaves the round. I agree that Soto advances, and I like the under for Ramirez. Alonso isn’t going to have an easy time against Acuna in the first round. I think Polar Bear takes the round, and Acuna falls short of his mark. Seager takes on Rodriguez in the final first-round matchup. Seager heads into this derby on a hot streak and will dash the rookie’s hopes of advancing. Rodriguez on the under.

As we advance, the matchups get even tougher. Schwarber against Soto and Alonso against Seager is going to be intense. I think Seager is going to get knocked out and will finish under his total after not having to hit many to defeat Rodriguez in the first. Schwarber and Soto are about to put on a show in the second round. I’m picking Schwarber to advance, but Soto will hit over 33 home runs in two rounds. Regardless of who wins my projected final between Alonso and Schwarber, they both will surpass their overs and I don’t think it will be close.

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