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The Big Ten has been in the news quite a bit recently, but most of the headlines have very little to do with football games that will happen on the field this Fall.
Despite all the conference realignment moves dominating the Twittersphere, there are still games to be played in 2022 and a conference champion to crown. There are the heavy favorites like Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State, but there are several dark horse candidates too. Factors like returning production and overall talent from recruiting will play a major role in what happens on the field this season.
SP+ rankings
For the uninitiated, SP+ rankings are a measure of efficiency adjusted opponent to opponent based on an algorithm created by ESPN’s Bill Connelly. In what may come as a surprise to many, Ohio State is currently ranked as the No. 1 team in the nation by these rankings, with Michigan rounding out the would-be Playoff positions in the four spot. The data is clearly placing a big emphasis on CJ Stroud and his premier pass-catcher Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who teamed up for one of the best Rose Bowls of all time (347 yards, 3 TDs on three catches). Wisconsin is also ranked in the top-10 in SP+, with only the SEC boasting more teams in the top-10 of that metric with four.
The rest of the Big Ten ranges from elite, with Penn State, Michigan State and Minnesota ranking in the top 25, to yikes, with Northwestern ranking 85th, with just four Power 5 teams worse than that in the nation.
2022 B1G SP+
| Ranking | Team | Offense SP+ | Defense SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ranking | Team | Offense SP+ | Defense SP+ |
| 82 | Illinois | 21.0 (103) | 24.2 (51) |
| 72 | Indiana | 24.0 (90) | 24.4 (52) |
| 27 | Iowa | 26.3 (76) | 13.8 (4) |
| 47 | Maryland | 36.9 (15) | 29.4 (83) |
| 4 | Michigan | 40.3 (6) | 19.7 (20) |
| 16 | Michigan St | 34.2 (33) | 19.0 (16) |
| 21 | Minnesota | 30.7 (50) | 16.5 (9) |
| 29 | Nebraska | 33.8 (34) | 21.5 (35) |
| 85 | Northwestern | 20.9 (105) | 25.3 (60) |
| 1 | Ohio St | 47.9 (1) | 18.0 (13) |
| 13 | Penn St | 30.3 (53) | 14.0 (5) |
| 35 | Purdue | 32.1 (38) | 21.4 (34) |
| 78 | Rutgers | 22.1 (98) | 23.6 (46) |
| 10 | Wisconsin | 29.5 (58) | 11.2 (1) |
Returning production
No team in the Big Ten has more than 80% of their production from last season returning. The team in the league with the most familiar faces will be Iowa, with the Hawkeyes bringing back 76% of their total production. The offense wasn’t much to write home about last year, but they return 71% of one of the best defenses in the nation that led them to the B1G Championship Game.
Ohio State and Michigan State, two teams who were objectively better than the Hawkeyes last year, aren’t far behind with 73% of production coming back. That’s a surprise considering the big names each program lost to the NFL. The conference's CFP representative Michigan Wolverines return 65% of their roster, with the overwhelming majority of that coming on offense. The defense will have huge holes to fill with two first-round linemen off to the NFL. Illinois returns a shockingly low 51% of its roster, ranking it worst in the conference and 115th in the nation.
2022 B1G Returning Talent
| Team | Overall Returning Production | National Rank | Offense | National Rank | Defense | National Rank | Offense Overall | Returning QB % | Returning OL % | Defense Overall | Kicker Starts | Punter Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Overall Returning Production | National Rank | Offense | National Rank | Defense | National Rank | Offense Overall | Returning QB % | Returning OL % | Defense Overall | Kicker Starts | Punter Starts |
| Illinois | 51% | 115 | 58% | 83 | 56% | 97 | 4 | 54.81% | 44.62% | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Indiana | 67% | 53 | 56% | 88 | 59% | 82 | 9 | 78.88% | 63.69% | 5 | 12 | 12 |
| Iowa | 76% | 20 | 73% | 33 | 71% | 32 | 7 | 99.75% | 60.15% | 8 | 0 | 14 |
| Maryland | 70% | 41 | 81% | 15 | 61% | 72 | 7 | 96.93% | 99.81% | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| Michigan State | 73% | 27 | 69% | 52 | 72% | 31 | 5 | 97.75% | 42.07% | 7 | 0 | 13 |
| Michigan | 65% | 65 | 83% | 12 | 46% | 117 | 7 | 99.24% | 64.17% | 3 | 14 | 14 |
| Minnesota | 69% | 44 | 74% | 32 | 60% | 79 | 6 | 100.00% | 33.09% | 6 | 13 | 13 |
| Nebraska | 57% | 94 | 55% | 92 | 57% | 89 | 4 | 49.67% | 63.77% | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Northwestern | 65% | 65 | 68% | 53 | 58% | 87 | 7 | 49.32% | 86.89% | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Ohio State | 73% | 25 | 72% | 39 | 76% | 19 | 6 | 97.17% | 67.92% | 5 | 13 | 13 |
| Penn State | 65% | 67 | 67% | 56 | 54% | 102 | 5 | 93.42% | 48.40% | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Purdue | 67% | 52 | 62% | 71 | 64% | 64 | 5 | 77.74% | 69.47% | 7 | 13 | 13 |
| Rutgers | 66% | 57 | 74% | 30 | 60% | 76 | 3 | 92.64% | 59.69% | 6 | 13 | 13 |
| Wisconsin | 62% | 77 | 65% | 62 | 52% | 106 | 5 | 100.00% | 68.58% | 4 | 0 | 13 |
Positional talent data
When it comes to overall talent, it’s no shock to learn the Buckeyes are at the top of the class yet again. OSU ranks second in the nation and first in the B1G with an average player talent composite score of 94. Penn State is the only other conference team in the top-10, with an average player rating of 90.8. The Wolverines are close behind at 15th with players rated an average of 89.66. The only individual position where OSU doesn’t reign supreme is the running back spot, with Penn State earning first place behind Keyvone Lee who averaged nearly 5 yards per rush a season ago.
The Fighting Illini ranks the worst in the Big Ten, ranking 64th in the nation with an average talent score of 84.51.
2022 B1G Overall Talent
| Team | Team Talent National Rank | Team Talent Player Average | Team Composite National Rank | Team Composite Player Average | 6 Year Average Recrutiing Class Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Team Talent National Rank | Team Talent Player Average | Team Composite National Rank | Team Composite Player Average | 6 Year Average Recrutiing Class Rank |
| Illinois | 64 | 84.51 | 64 | 84.95 | 62.83 |
| Indiana | 30 | 86.89 | 30 | 86.63 | 48.17 |
| Iowa | 62 | 84.83 | 38 | 87.77 | 36.33 |
| Maryland | 45 | 85.74 | 37 | 86.71 | 29.83 |
| Michigan State | 29 | 86.71 | 25 | 87.79 | 35.33 |
| Michigan | 15 | 89.66 | 12 | 90.18 | 12.33 |
| Minnesota | 44 | 85.52 | 52 | 85.8 | 45.00 |
| Nebraska | 28 | 87.39 | 31 | 86.51 | 22.33 |
| Northwestern | 46 | 85.8 | 56 | 85.52 | 51.83 |
| Ohio State | 2 | 94 | 4 | 93.79 | 4.83 |
| Penn State | 10 | 90.8 | 8 | 90.73 | 12.83 |
| Purdue | 59 | 84.89 | 46 | 85.96 | 50.83 |
| Rutgers | 57 | 85.34 | 33 | 87.03 | 50.17 |
| Wisconsin | 26 | 87.48 | 41 | 86.91 | 32.67 |
Latest win totals from DraftKings Sportsbook
2022 B1G Win Totals
| Team | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over | Under |
| Illinois | Over 4.5 -125 | Under 4.5 +105 |
| Indiana | Over 4 -120 | Under 4 +100 |
| Iowa | Over 7.5 -105 | Under 7.5 -115 |
| Maryland | Over 6 +100 | Under 6 -120 |
| Michigan | Over 9.5 -125 | Under 9.5 +105 |
| Michigan State | Over 7.5 -130 | Under 7.5 +110 |
| Minnesota | Over 7.5 +100 | Under 7.5 -120 |
| Nebraska | Over 7.5 -110 | Under 7.5 -110 |
| Northwestern | Over 4 +100 | Under 4 -120 |
| Ohio State | Over 10.5 -235 | Under 10.5 +190 |
| Penn State | Over 8.5 +105 | Under 8.5 -125 |
| Purdue | Over 7.5 +100 | Under 7.5 -120 |
| Rutgers | Over 4 +100 | Under 4 -120 |
| Wisconsin | Over 8.5 -145 | Under 8.5 +125 |
Returning production and positional talent data compiled by Seth Varnadore. You can find him on Twitter and YouTube at Varnadore Films where he does game film breakdowns of teams all over college football.
SP+ data compiled by ESPN’s Bill Connelly.