Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies (-125, 9)
The Phillies own the National League’s best bullpen ERA over the past 35 days at 2.32 and send starter Kyle Gibson to the mound who has had more success at home than on the road this season.
Despite nine of the 13 home runs allowed Gibson coming in Philadelphia this season, he is posting a 4.01 ERA and 4-1 record at home compared to a 1-2 record and 4.73 road ERA with a strikeout to walk rate of 4.3 at home and just 2.3 on the road.
The Cubs starter Justin Steele has worse road woes than Gibson, registering a 3.29 ERA at home with less than 0.4 home runs per nine innings allowed at Wrigley Field while giving up nearly two and a half times more home runs per nine innings with a 5.86 ERA on the road with an overall walks per nine innings rate of 4.0.
The Cubs do not back up Steele with a strong bullpen, as the team’s 4.30 bullpen ERA this season is 24th in the league and has to try to silence a lineup that is fifth in the league in home runs on a per at-bay basis.
The revamped Phillies bullpen coupled with a Cubs team that enters having lost nine of their last 10 games will keep the Phillies hot start of the summer months going on Friday.
The Play: Phillies -125
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