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The MAC is always a tough league to predict given the parity and the slim margins between every team across the conference.Certain elements like returning production and position strength can be what separates a team competing for a conference title in November and a team outright missing a bowl game.
Below, we’ll look at a handful of advanced stats for the MAC ahead of the 2022 season.
SP+ rankings
Toledo enters the season ranked No. 60 in SP+ projections and outclasses the rest of the conference in this regard by a wide margin. The strength is projected to come from its 25th ranked defense, a unit that returns a few All-MAC players from last year like outside linebacker Jamal Hines and safety Maxen Hook.
After the Rockets, the league has a cluster of teams occupying the 85-100 spots in SP+, a lost that includes Miami-OH, defending conference champion Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, and Bowling Green.
2022 MAC Win Totals
| Ranking | Team | Offense SP+ | Defense SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ranking | Team | Offense SP+ | Defense SP+ |
| 126 | Akron | 17.7 (124) | 37.9 (124) |
| 120 | Ball St | 19.3 (115) | 34.8 (116) |
| 99 | BGSU | 20.4 (108) | 28.5 (77) |
| 101 | Buffalo | 23.4 (92) | 32.3 (102) |
| 94 | CMU | 27.0 (74) | 34.3 (113) |
| 111 | EMU | 26.1 (77) | 37.7 (123) |
| 103 | Kent St | 28.6 (66) | 37.9 (125) |
| 84 | Miami-OH | 28.2 (67) | 32.3 (101) |
| 91 | NIU | 29.6 (57) | 35.1 (118) |
| 105 | Ohio | 24.1 (89) | 34.0 (110) |
| 60 | Toledo | 24.4 (87) | 20.5 (25) |
| 95 | WMU | 22.4 (96) | 29.7 (86) |
Returning production
Bowling Green leads the conference in returning production at an outstanding 92%, good for second in the entire nation. Much maligned head coach Scot Loeffler led the Falcons to a 4-8 record last season and if there’s a chance to reach bowl eligibility, it’s with a team where virtually everyone has returned from last season.
At 83%, Northern Illinois will have a strong chance at securing back-to-back MAC titles, especially with starting quarterback Rocky Lombardi returning for another year.
2022 MAC Returning Talent
| Team | Overall Returning Production | National Rank | Offense | National Rank | Defense | National Rank | Offense Overall | Returning QB % | Returning OL % | Defense Overall | Kicker Starts | Punter Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Overall Returning Production | National Rank | Offense | National Rank | Defense | National Rank | Offense Overall | Returning QB % | Returning OL % | Defense Overall | Kicker Starts | Punter Starts |
| Akron | 71% | 34 | 60% | 77 | 92% | 2 | 7 | 35.69% | 100.00% | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| Ball State | 50% | 116 | 47% | 112 | 43% | 125 | 6 | 6.59% | 61.03% | 3 | 0* | 0 |
| Bowling Green | 92% | 2 | 95% | 1 | 84% | 10 | 9 | 100.00% | 83.09% | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Buffalo | 55% | 101 | 42% | 120 | 59% | 84 | 2 | 33.42% | 34.12% | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Central Michigan | 52% | 114 | 66% | 57 | 44% | 122 | 7 | 72.99% | 66.96% | 3 | 13 | 13 |
| Eastern Michigan | 66% | 59 | 66% | 60 | 65% | 58 | 6 | 30.43% | 80.84% | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Kent State | 56% | 99 | 42% | 122 | 64% | 63 | 6 | 5.93% | 47.57% | 6 | 14 | 14 |
| Miami OH | 56% | 96 | 71% | 41 | 44% | 120 | 7 | 70.73% | 80.72% | 5 | 13 | 13 |
| Northern Illinois | 83% | 6 | 88% | 5 | 85% | 6 | 8 | 99.80% | 100.00% | 9 | 14 | 0 |
| Ohio | 70% | 40 | 65% | 63 | 71% | 33 | 3 | 83.44% | 72.84% | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| Toledo | 67% | 48 | 55% | 89 | 74% | 24 | 7 | 66.67% | 63.06% | 8 | 13 | 0 |
| Western Michigan | 45% | 126 | 28% | 129 | 64% | 65 | 4 | 1.63% | 43.70% | 6 | 7 | 13 |
Positional talent data
Toledo’s position at the top MAC team in SP+ is backed up by them possession the top roster in the league at No. 70 in the country. The only other teams cracking the top 100 from the MAC are Miami-OH at 96 and Western Michigan at 99.
2022 MAC Overall Talent
| Team | Team Talent National Rank | Team Talent Player Average | Team Composite National Rank | Team Composite Player Average | 6 Year Average Recrutiing Class Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Team Talent National Rank | Team Talent Player Average | Team Composite National Rank | Team Composite Player Average | 6 Year Average Recrutiing Class Rank |
| Akron | 121 | 79.95 | 111 | 82.22 | 121.67 |
| Ball State | 112 | 80.77 | 108 | 81.21 | 110.17 |
| Bowling Green | 116 | 79.41 | 119 | 82.1 | 102.00 |
| Buffalo | 115 | 80.31 | 76 | 83.61 | 110.17 |
| Central Michigan | 114 | 80.33 | 99 | 82.63 | 102.50 |
| Eastern Michigan | 113 | 80.54 | 126 | 82.68 | 115.50 |
| Kent State | 110 | 80.43 | 102 | 81.53 | 109.50 |
| Miami OH | 96 | 81.36 | 89 | 83.57 | 96.50 |
| Northern Illinois | 106 | 81.06 | 103 | 81.42 | 97.33 |
| Ohio | 119 | 79.96 | 135 | 83.14 | 115.17 |
| Toledo | 70 | 83.64 | 100 | 83.15 | 76.33 |
| Western Michigan | 99 | 81.16 | 124 | 82.05 | 92.83 |
Latest win totals from DraftKings Sportsbook
2022 MAC Win Totals
| Team | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over | Under |
| Akron | Over 2.5 +125 | Under 2.5 -145 |
| Ball State | Over 5.5 +130 | Under 5.5 -150 |
| Bowling Green | Over 3.5 -150 | Under 3.5 +130 |
| Buffalo | Over 5.5 -110 | Under 5.5 -110 |
| Central Michigan | Over 7.5 -125 | Under 7.5 +105 |
| Eastern Michigan | Over 6.5 +135 | Under 6.5 -160 |
| Kent State | Over 5 -125 | Under 5 +105 |
| Miami OH | Over 6.5 -135 | Under 6.5 +115 |
| Northern Illinois | Over 6.5 -150 | Under 6.5 +130 |
| Ohio | Over 5.5 -110 | Under 5.5 -110 |
| Toledo | Over 8 -105 | Under 8 -115 |
| Western Michigan | Over 6.5 +125 | Under 6.5 -145 |
Returning production and positional talent data compiled by Seth Varnadore. You can find him on Twitter and YouTube at Varnadore Films where he does game film breakdowns of teams all over college football.
SP+ data compiled by ESPN’s Bill Connelly.