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There’s a big slate of night games on Saturday and yet another busy MLB Sunday with baseball back in full swing. Here are the wagers that stand out on DraftKings Sportsbook for this weekend’s action.
Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.
SATURDAY
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Angels
Austin Riley over 1.5 total bases +100
It’s hard to imagine this is still at even money by first pitch. The numbers in this matchup favor Austin Riley heavily.
Of course, Atlanta’s third baseman crushes left-handed pitching — which always makes his total-bases prop an option in this sort of matchup. He has a .450 ISO and .325 average over his last 46 plate appearances against lefties. That’s been the result of a 48.3 percent hard-contact rate, 27.6 percent line-drive rate and 48.3 percent fly-ball rate against them. Quick math: That means Riley’s ground-ball rate against righties is only 24.1 percent, which is absolutely absurd.
That doesn’t bode well for Patrick Sandoval, who has allowed the last 97 right-handed hitters he’s faced to combine for a .382 wOBA. During that span, he’s only posted a 27.9 percent ground-ball rate against those hitters, thus providing Riley with a big-time spot. For those looking for a home run dart, Riley at +280 is a strong option Saturday.
Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates
Max Meyer over 4.5 strikeouts +105
The Marlins rookie didn’t have an ideal start to his MLB career, giving up five runs over 5 1/3 innings to the Phillies right before the break. But you know what Meyer managed to do in his debut? Punch out five Philadelphia hitters — which is all he needs to do on Saturday for this play to hit. Looking at his Minor League track record, that’s not asking for much. He’s logged 82 strikeouts in 68 innings at Triple-A and 113 in 101 Double-A frames throughout his career. Now, he gets a chance for redemption vs. the Pirates — who have the third-highest K rate against right-handed pitching this month (26 percent) and are tied for the second-highest mark against righties on the season (25.2 percent).
EDITOR’S NOTE: Yankees OF Giancarlo Stanton is not in the lineup tonight vs. the Orioles.
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Giancarlo Stanton over 1.5 total bases +115
Stanton has posted nothing but goose eggs since being named All-Star Game MVP. All that means is he’s due. His old pal Jordan Lyles is on the bump for Baltimore on Saturday, so Stanton is in a spot to get back on track. The Yankees slugger is 7-for-18 (.389) with a pair of doubles and a home run against Lyles, who has given up a 24.1 percent line-drive rate to the last 79 right-handed hitters he’s faced. Despite having a .143 BABIP in his last 96 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Stanton has posted a .322 ISO during that span.
SUNDAY
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox
Total under 8 runs -155
In Dylan Cease’s last seven starts, the under on Sunday’s total is 4-2-1. In Shane Bieber’s last seven starts, the under on Sunday’s total is 4-2-1. We’ve seen stranger things, but that symmetry is a bit odd.
Both teams are 50-50 when it comes to the over/under on the season. However, the under is 17-14-2 when the White Sox are home favorites. The under is only 12-13-2 when Cleveland is a road underdog, but things even out overall (22-22-3) when considering the road games they’ve been favored. More importantly, Bieber has dealt in both starts vs. the White Sox — and Cease was lights out in his two starts before the break, one of which came against the very offense he’ll see on Sunday.
Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
Rangers -1.5 +150
The A’s are 1-8 in Paul Blackburn’s last nine starts — and that’s largely been the result of poor pitching from the right-hander. He only has two quality starts during this stretch, plus a 5 1/3-inning, one-run outing. Putting him up against a Rangers offense that’s making a good amount of hard contact and getting the ball airborne against right-handed pitching is asking for trouble.
Not to mention, Texas has a tendency to provide Martín Pérez with a lot of offense. They’re won 13 of his 18 starts and covered in all but one of those wins. Of course, some of that was the product of Pérez’s ridiculous run earlier in the season. Still, the Rangers are 6-2 in his last eight starts — a stretch in which he has a 4.34 ERA and 4.23 FIP. More importantly, the Rangers have won by two or more runs in each of those six wins.
Taking the Rangers on the moneyline at -125 is a fine bet for those who want to play conservatively. But the run line is a very reasonable risk in this matchup, especially at this price.
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