:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71167335/1292182688.0.jpg)
The Mountain West Conference is inching towards the 2022 season and the usual suspects are projected to be residing at the top of the league. Certain elements like returning production and SP+ suggests that it will ultimately be a two-team race for the conference crown, but there’s room for others to sneak up and grab the mantle themselves.
Below, we’ll look at a handful of advanced stats for the Mountain West ahead of the 2022 season.
SP+ rankings
The two teams standing over the rest of the Mountain West from an SP+ standpoint are Fresno State at No. 37 and Boise State at No. 43. Once again under the guidance of Jeff Tedford, the Bulldogs are projected to have a top 30 offense led by quarterback Jake Haener. Meanwhile, the Broncos have the 14th ranked defense heading into the season and have seven super seniors returning to that side of the ball.
Air Force and San Diego State are the only other teams in the MWC to crack the top 75 while Utah State and Colorado State enter the season in the 80’s.
2022 Mountain West Conference SP+
| Ranking | Team | Offense SP+ | Defense SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ranking | Team | Offense SP+ | Defense SP+ |
| 64 | Air Force | 27.9 (69) | 25.6 (61) |
| 43 | Boise St | 27.1 (72) | 18.9 (14) |
| 87 | Colorado St | 18.9 (118) | 24.0 (50) |
| 37 | Fresno St | 34.7 (27) | 24.9 (58) |
| 121 | Hawaii | 20.5 (107) | 37.4 (122) |
| 117 | Nevada | 18.4 (121) | 32.6 (103) |
| 124 | New Mexico | 8.6 (131) | 27.8 (74) |
| 68 | SDSU | 19.2 (117) | 17.7 (12) |
| 83 | SJSU | 21.3 (101) | 25.0 (59) |
| 110 | UNLV | 19.7 (114) | 30.9 (94) |
| 92 | Utah St | 27.0 (73) | 33.4 (107) |
| 104 | Wyoming | 18.7 (119) | 28.6 (78) |
Returning production
Fresno State and Boise State will also have an advantage in regards to returning production as both schools check in with over 70%. Haener is the biggest name returning for the Bulldogs while the Broncos also have a returning senior quarterback in Hank Bachmeier.
A team that could stand to benefit from its returning production is UNLV, who enters the season at 76%. The Runnin’ Rebels have gone 2-16 in two years under Marcus Arroyo and are primed to take a step forward this season.
2022 Mountain West Returning Talent
| Team | Overall Returning Production | National Rank | Offense | National Rank | Defense | National Rank | Offense Overall | Returning QB % | Returning OL % | Defense Overall | Kicker Starts | Punter Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Overall Returning Production | National Rank | Offense | National Rank | Defense | National Rank | Offense Overall | Returning QB % | Returning OL % | Defense Overall | Kicker Starts | Punter Starts |
| Air Force | 65% | 68 | 70% | 48 | 59% | 80 | 6 | 93.75% | 69.61% | 6 | 13 | 13 |
| Boise State | 73% | 29 | 65% | 65 | 85% | 7 | 7 | 98.29% | 66.10% | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| Colorado State | 58% | 91 | 41% | 123 | 67% | 50 | 2 | 1.51% | 39.88% | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Fresno State | 78% | 16 | 81% | 16 | 71% | 34 | 6 | 100.00% | 74.09% | 7 | 0 | 13 |
| Hawai'i | 28% | 130 | 35% | 126 | 16% | 131 | 4 | 24.73% | 60.28% | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| Nevada | 28% | 131 | 27% | 131 | 35% | 130 | 2 | 15.43% | 34.88% | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| New Mexico | 59% | 88 | 44% | 118 | 70% | 39 | 3 | 34.06% | 29.43% | 7 | 0 | 12 |
| San Diego State | 55% | 103 | 44% | 117 | 61% | 73 | 3 | 43.99% | 40.02% | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| San Jose State | 66% | 60 | 65% | 64 | 76% | 20 | 4 | 67.15% | 47.04% | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| UNLV | 76% | 18 | 63% | 70 | 74% | 27 | 6 | 80.53% | 70.89% | 7 | 12 | 12 |
| Utah State | 49% | 119 | 61% | 74 | 53% | 104 | 8 | 91.49% | 81.18% | 5 | 14 | 14 |
| Wyoming | 35% | 129 | 30% | 128 | 37% | 129 | 4 | 14.66% | 40.82% | 2 | 13 | 13 |
Positional talent data
Boise State boasts the top roster in the conference heading into the season and San Diego State sits right behind them at 76. The Aztecs are projected to have the most talented offense and that’s buoyed by the talent they have at the skill positions.
Once again, the Broncos’ strength will be with their defense as they have the best individual units across that side of the football.
2022 Mountain West Overall Talent
| Team | Team Talent National Rank | Team Talent Player Average | Team Composite National Rank | Team Composite Player Average | 6 Year Average Recrutiing Class Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Team Talent National Rank | Team Talent Player Average | Team Composite National Rank | Team Composite Player Average | 6 Year Average Recrutiing Class Rank |
| Air Force | 131 | 76.59 | 127 | 81.76 | 109.83 |
| Boise State | 72 | 83.46 | 69 | 84.87 | 62.33 |
| Colorado State | 91 | 81.4 | 81 | 83.98 | 86.50 |
| Fresno State | 85 | 82.19 | 68 | 84.01 | 86.33 |
| Hawai'i | 123 | 80.34 | 123 | 82.05 | 111.83 |
| Nevada | 103 | 80.7 | 122 | 82.96 | 99.67 |
| New Mexico | 120 | 79.74 | 114 | 80.27 | 112.83 |
| San Diego State | 76 | 83.09 | 79 | 84.56 | 82.33 |
| San Jose State | 111 | 80.8 | 83 | 83.67 | 107.00 |
| UNLV | 83 | 82.5 | 101 | 83.84 | 94.33 |
| Utah State | 94 | 81.43 | 85 | 83.04 | 107.00 |
| Wyoming | 117 | 79.39 | 106 | 81.68 | 109.00 |
Latest win totals from DraftKings Sportsbook
2022 Mountain West Win Totals
| Team | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over | Under |
| Air Force | Over 8.5 -110 | Under 8.5 -110 |
| Boise State | Over 9 -135 | Under 9 +115 |
| Colorado State | Over 5.5 -145 | Under 5.5 +125 |
| Fresno State | Over 8.5 -125 | Under 8.5 +105 |
| Hawaii | Over 4.5 +105 | Under 4.5 -125 |
| Nevada | Over 5 +100 | Under 5 -120 |
| New Mexico | Over 2.5 +120 | Under 2.5 -140 |
| San Diego State | Over 7.5 -120 | Under 7.5 +100 |
| San Jose State | Over 6.5 +125 | Under 6.5 -145 |
| UNLV | Over 4.5 +110 | Under 4.5 -130 |
| Utah State | Over 7 +100 | Under 7 -120 |
| Wyoming | Over 5 +105 | Under 5 -125 |
Returning production and positional talent data compiled by Seth Varnadore. You can find him on Twitter and YouTube at Varnadore Films where he does game film breakdowns of teams all over college football.
SP+ data compiled by ESPN’s Bill Connelly.