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Why Julio Jones will go OVER on receiving yards, TDs and what it means for your fantasy football draft

We take a look at the odds for Julio Jones available on DraftKings Sportsbook and make our predictions and give fantasy football insight ahead of the 2022 NFL season.

NFL: JUL 28 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Training Camp
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Julio Jones makes a catch during the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Training Camp on July 28, 2022 at the AdventHealth Training Center at One Buccaneer Place in Tampa, Florida.
Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Julio Jones has been a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for about a day and we’ve already got a video of him catching a touchdown pass from Tom Brady. There’s understandably a lot of hype surrounding Jones and Brady, even with the former coming off a poor injury-riddled season. Here’s a look at Jones’ player totals for the season courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, and how we think you should approach them for the 2022 season.

Julio Jones 550.5 receiving yards: Over (-115) or Under (-115)

Our pick: Over

The Buccaneers have to replace production from Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown with Jones and Russell Gage. Gronkowski and Brown combined for 1,347 yards and 10 touchdowns. If Jones stays healthy, he’s likely going to be the third receiver on the field alongside Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. He should get strong matchup opportunities. The yardage total is way too low to bet the under, especially if Jones plays a full 17 games. Brown managed 545 yards in seven games played, so this offense is explosive enough to push Jones past this mark.

Julio Jones 4.5 receiving touchdowns: Over (-115) or Under (-115)

Our pick: Over

Brady isn’t coming back to hand the ball off to Leonard Fournette 30 times a game. He threw for 5,316 yards and 43 touchdowns, with 15 of those coming over the first five games. This offense is going to throw the ball a lot, and Jones will factor prominently if he’s getting good matchups. Five receiving touchdowns is also too low for a full season. Even if we factor in some injury issues, Jones should go over this total with ease.

Fantasy football insight

The big thing to remember with Jones is the health concerns. He’s a great third receiver in this offense, but that doesn’t mean he can be a WR2 in your fantasy football league. Depending on how your league operates and the amount of bench spots you have, Jones could be worth taking a flier on at a low cost. He’s not a lock as a weekly fantasy starter until he proves he can stay healthy and has a sizable role in this Tampa offense.

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