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The Houston Astros enter Sunday’s home game with the Los Angeles Angels having won seven of their last eight games and will look to extend that mark against the newly recalled Jose Suarez.
The Angels have had Suarez toggle between the minor leagues and the big leagues each of the past three seasons and in his MLB career has been much less successful as a starter than coming out of the bullpen.
Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros (-230, 8)
Suarez has a lifetime 5.99 ERA with 1.7 home runs per nine innings as a starter compared to a 3.75 ERA and 1.5 home runs per nine innings coming out of the bullpen and overall this season, he has a 4.36 ERA with opponents hitting .278 off of him.
The Astros will give Framber Valdez the start, who has posted a career-low 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings this season but has a 2.65 ERA with just 0.5 home runs per nine innings allowed despite giving up more contact than in past seasons.
Houston has been the best team to the under in MLB this season thanks to a bullpen that leads the league in ERA at 2.70, but their 3.32 FIP indicates that regression might be on the way and the offense has heated up at home, scoring at least four runs in five of their last six home games.
The Angels’ bullpen is 19th in the league in ERA and with the Astros leader in on-base percentage and home runs Yordan Alvarez returning to the lineup on Saturday, this series will wrap up with a game that mirrors the first two games of this series, with an over.
The Play: Angels vs Astros Over 8
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