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The ACC is always a tough conference to get a gauge on considering how volatile the middle class of the conference is on a yearly bases. Certain elements like returning production and position strength can be what separates a team competing for a conference title in November and a team outright missing a bowl game.
Below, we’ll look at a handful of advanced stats for the ACC ahead of the 2022 season.
SP+ rankings
To no surprise, Clemson has the highest rated SP+ projected in the conference at No. 5. The strength of this team lies with its second-ranked defense, which will be bolstered by potential top 10 NFL Draft picks in Bryan Bresee and Myles Murphy. Miami is projected to be a strong contender in the first year of the Mario Cristobal era at No. 14 while defending champ Pitt enters the season at No. 22.
Also of note, the rankings are projecting both Virginia and Wake Forest to be among the most chaotic teams in the league. Led by senior quarterbacks, both teams enter the season with top 10 offenses and defenses that rank near the bottom of FBS.
2022 ACC SP+
| Ranking | Team | Offense SP+ | Defense SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ranking | Team | Offense SP+ | Defense SP+ |
| 6 | Clemson | 31.8 (39) | 11.5 (2) |
| 14 | Miami | 35.7 (21) | 20.1 (23) |
| 18 | NC St | 31.6 (42) | 16.7 (10) |
| 19 | Pittsburgh | 35.8 (20) | 20.9 (30) |
| 28 | Florida St | 31.4 (45) | 19.0 (15) |
| 30 | Louisville | 37.0 (14) | 24.8 (56) |
| 34 | North Carolina | 37.4 (11) | 26.7 (70) |
| 49 | Wake Forest | 37.8 (9) | 31.5 (97) |
| 55 | Virginia | 38.8 (7) | 34.2 (112) |
| 57 | Syracuse | 27.8 (70) | 23.4 (45) |
| 61 | Va. Tech | 25.7 (81) | 21.8 (37) |
| 76 | Boston Coll | 25.0 (84) | 25.9 (65) |
| 90 | Georgia Tech | 28.8 (64) | 34.1 (111) |
| 119 | Duke | 21.7 (99) | 36.0 (119) |
Returning production
NC State has been tabbed as a potential dark horse candidate to win the conference and that’s in large part due to their league-leading returning production at 82%. Starting quarterback Devin Leary is among several returning players who will try to lead the Wolfpack to their first 10+ win season in two decades.
Another team that could get a much needed bump from its returnees is Louisville, who is second in the conference at 79%. Things were looking bleak for the Scott Satterfield era last season but the combination of a strong season and recent recruiting success may save his job. He just has to take advantage of the number of players he has coming back.
ACC Returning Production
| Team | Overall Returning Production | National Rank | Offense | National Rank | Defense | National Rank | Offense Overall | Returning QB % | Returning OL % | Defense Overall | Kicker Starts | Punter Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Overall Returning Production | National Rank | Offense | National Rank | Defense | National Rank | Offense Overall | Returning QB % | Returning OL % | Defense Overall | Kicker Starts | Punter Starts |
| Boston College | 60% | 81 | 51% | 105 | 68% | 46 | 5 | 36.84% | 11.19%* | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| Clemson | 72% | 30 | 79% | 21 | 64% | 59 | 9 | 95.91% | 69.14% | 6 | 0 | 13 |
| Duke | 49% | 121 | 48% | 110 | 55% | 99 | 5 | 20.98% | 73.28% | 4 | 12 | 12 |
| Florida State | 78% | 17 | 71% | 42 | 80% | 13 | 8 | 57.65% | 68.38% | 7 | 12 | 12 |
| Georgia Tech | 49% | 118 | 51% | 103 | 44% | 119 | 4 | 70.46% | 35.79% | 2 | 12 | 12 |
| Louisville | 79% | 12 | 77% | 24 | 69% | 41 | 7 | 100.00% | 83.65% | 4 | 13 | 13 |
| Miami | 73% | 28 | 69% | 50 | 81% | 12 | 7 | 73.71% | 61.16% | 5 | 12 | 12 |
| NC State | 82% | 8 | 73% | 34 | 85% | 8 | 7 | 99.77% | 72.44% | 9 | 12 | 0 |
| North Carolina | 64% | 73 | 48% | 109 | 76% | 21 | 4 | 9.16% | 53.35% | 7 | 0 | 13 |
| Pitt | 69% | 45 | 56% | 87 | 70% | 35 | 4 | 38.17% | 81.64% | 8 | 14 | 0 |
| Syracuse | 80% | 9 | 81% | 17 | 76% | 18 | 8 | 82.07% | 81.99% | 8 | 12 | 12 |
| Virginia | 53% | 108 | 60% | 75 | 55% | 98 | 4 | 99.64% | 4.72% | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Virginia Tech | 64% | 74 | 50% | 107 | 75% | 23 | 3 | 67.74% | 50.53% | 7 | 0 | 13 |
| Wake Forest | 70% | 39 | 79% | 20 | 64% | 60 | 7 | 100.00% | 81.24% | 5 | 0 | 14 |
Talent data
From a position by position breakdown, both Clemson and Miami stand above the rest of the conference and that’s not surprising considering the talent they have acquired in the last four years. The Tigers have six units that rank in the top 10 of FBS and the center of their power will come from their front seven. The Hurricanes’ strength will come from the skill positions on both sides of the ball and that’s not surprising given the amount of speed in south Florida.
A team that should make a leap at least on paper is Florida State, who has the 19th ranked roster in the country. Given the amount of talent that is brought to Tallahassee every year, opposing coaches have chastised FSU for being one of the biggest underachievers in the country in recent years. There will be little excuse for Mike Norvell to not show tangible progress in year three in Tallahassee.
2022 ACC Talent
| Team | Team Talent National Rank | Team Talent Player Average | Team Composite National Rank | Team Composite Player Average | 6 Year Average Recrutiing Class Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Team Talent National Rank | Team Talent Player Average | Team Composite National Rank | Team Composite Player Average | 6 Year Average Recrutiing Class Rank |
| Boston College | 41 | 86.13 | 53 | 85.94 | 59.17 |
| Clemson | 6 | 91.64 | 15 | 89.07 | 9.33 |
| Duke | 55 | 84.94 | 64 | 85.61 | 56.83 |
| Florida State | 19 | 88.67 | 19 | 88.55 | 16.50 |
| Georgia Tech | 37 | 86.73 | 43 | 86.44 | 43.00 |
| Louisville | 51 | 85.37 | 34 | 86.76 | 41.33 |
| Miami | 12 | 90.23 | 13 | 90.04 | 14.00 |
| NC State | 32 | 86.62 | 77 | 87.24 | 44.00 |
| North Carolina | 16 | 89.6 | 11 | 90.6 | 20.50 |
| Pitt | 39 | 86.09 | 60 | 86.52 | 45.83 |
| Syracuse | 67 | 84.39 | 66 | 85.03 | 57.00 |
| Virginia | 56 | 85.62 | 59 | 85.56 | 49.17 |
| Virginia Tech | 53 | 85.23 | 44 | 86.25 | 39.00 |
| Wake Forest | 68 | 84.14 | 80 | 85.64 | 65.83 |
Latest win totals from DraftKings Sportsbook
ACC Win Totals 2022
| Team | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over | Under |
| Boston College | Over 6.5 +110 | Under 6.5 -130 |
| Clemson | Over 10.5 +110 | Under 10.5 -130 |
| Duke | Over 3 +100 | Under 3 -120 |
| Florida State | Over 6.5 -125 | Under 6.5 +105 |
| Georgia Tech | Over 3.5 -125 | Under 3.5 +105 |
| Louisville | Over 6.5 +105 | Under 6.5 -125 |
| Miami FL | Over 8.5 +100 | Under 8.5 -120 |
| North Carolina | Over 7.5 +115 | Under 7.5 -135 |
| North Carolina State | Over 8.5 -150 | Under 8.5 +130 |
| Pittsburgh | Over 8.5 -110 | Under 8.5 -110 |
| Syracuse | Over 5 +110 | Under 5 -130 |
| Virginia | Over 7.5 +130 | Under 7.5 -150 |
| Virginia Tech | Over 6.5 +125 | Under 6.5 -145 |
| Wake Forest | Over 8.5 +110 | Under 8.5 -130 |
Returning production and positional talent data compiled by Seth Varnadore from 247Sports.com. You can find him on Twitter and YouTube at Varnadore Films where he does game film breakdowns of teams all over college football.
SP+ data compiled by ESPN’s Bill Connelly.