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MLB Picks for August 27 and 28: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Friar gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for this weekend’s MLB betting card.

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

This article originally appeared on MLB.com: Here are 5 wise wagers for this weekend’s games

There’s a good mix of plays that stand out on DraftKings Sportsbook this weekend, including one large underdog.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.


SATURDAY

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Kyle Schwarber over 1.5 total bases -105

Schwarber often shows off his power in bunches and he’s at the start of another surge. After launching a home run on Thursday, he laced a double in what was a 2-for-4 performance against Pittsburgh on Friday.

Schwarber is in a spot to go over this number again on Saturday with Tyler Beede on the mound. First off, the fact he’s 0-for-5 against the Pittsburgh right-hander means the Philly outfielder is due. Second, Beede has given up a lot of quality contact to left-handed hitters this month. The last 32 lefty bats Beede has faced have posted a 27.3 percent line-drive rate and 45.5 percent fly-ball rate.


Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers

Total over 7.5 runs -105

Eduardo Rodriguez did well in his return, but the Rangers have been cooking against left-handed pitching this month. They’ve only posted an 18.2 percent strikeout rate against lefties throughout August, while providing their pitching staff with a .196 ISO — the third-highest mark in baseball.

Opposite E-Rod is a lefty making his return to MLB action: Dallas Keuchel. He hasn’t pitched in the bigs since July, which was the result of him giving up 20 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings across his four starts in an Arizona uniform. One of those outings came against this Detroit lineup, which wasn’t hitting left-handed pitching well at the time — and which is also the case now. Yet, the Tigers scored four over 4 1/3 against Keuchel in that game.

Anyone in search of a hitter’s prop from this one should be on the lookout for Eric Haase’s total bases (currently off the books). If he’s at plus-money to go over 1.5, that’s going to be one of the best plays available on Saturday.


Diamondbacks at White Sox

Merrill Kelly over 4.5 strikeouts -130

Kelly has peppered the over on this number throughout 2022, logging five-plus strikeouts in 17 of his 25 starts. Most of those outings have come at home, but he’s gone over the number in each of his last three road starts.

The White Sox don’t strike out much against right-handed pitching, but neither do the Cardinals, Rockies or Giants. Yet, those three are among the group Kelly has logged five-plus Ks against in each of his last seven starts.


SUNDAY

Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies

Total under 9 runs -105

Two quality pitchers are taking the mound in Pennsylvania on Sunday. While banking on a 2-1 pitchers’ duel might be a bit bold, it’s still in play. Regardless, this nine-run total is quite high for Sunday’s matchup.

Every time Roansy Contreras takes the mound, the Pirates have a chance — making them an interesting underdog play at +225. But taking the under on the total is the play, since that’s hit in nine of the right-hander’s 14 starts this season. While Philly presents a tough matchup, so did the Braves in Contreras’ last start — yet he held them to two runs over seven innings in what wound up being a 2-1 loss for Pittsburgh.

As for Noah Syndergaard’s hand in this, Pittsburgh isn’t exactly a juggernaut. Since his return to the National League East, the right-hander has posted a 3.60 ERA and 3.61 FIP. That’s plenty good enough against this lineup. Also, the under on Sunday’s total has hit in three of Syndergaard’s four starts for Philadelphia.


Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros

Orioles +195

Justin Verlander is 8-3 at home, but he doesn’t have the same offense backing him that he’s had throughout the majority of 2022. The Astros have a .132 ISO against right-handed pitching this month. That’s largely the result of them hitting a lot of ground balls and not making much hard contact.

That won’t play well against Austin Voth, who has dealt in his last six starts. The Baltimore right-hander has posted a 2.40 ERA across his last 30 innings. And not only does he have a strong bullpen backing him, but Baltimore’s offense has also been good against right-handed pitching in August (top 10 in ISO).


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