Once an object of ridicule, Josh Allen has transformed himself into one of the NFL’s truly premier quarterbacks. The former No. 7 overall pick had a fairly inconsistent first two seasons in the league that, despite the Buffalo Bills’ success, suggested he might never live up to his draft status. Those concerns quickly washed away in 2020, the year Allen earned second-team All-Pro honors and put himself in the running for league MVP honors.
After another stellar season, Allen enters 2022 on the short list of MVP front-runners. Intelligent minds can disagree on which quarterback ranks supreme in today’s NFL, but any debate that doesn’t include Allen isn’t really a discussion about the best players at the position.
2021 season statistics & fantasy finish
Passing: 409 completions on 646 attempts (63.3% completion) for 4,407 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions
Rushing: 122 attempts for 763 yards and six touchdowns
Fantasy: First among QBs in total scoring (first in per-game scoring)
Bills’ offseason moves
In terms of offensive personnel, the Bills largely return the same group from a year ago. Cole Beasley departs to make room for Jamison Crowder and Rodger Saffold arrives to reinforce the interior, but the same veteran playmakers with which Allen demolished defenses in 2021 remain. The front office added James Cook in the draft to bolster the backfield, but Buffalo will again take a pass-first, pass-often approach. Perhaps the biggest change comes on the coaching staff where Ken Dorsey replaces Brian Daboll, who departed to take the New York Giants’ head-coaching job, as offensive coordinator.
2022 best-case scenario
Allen builds on the breakthroughs of the past two seasons and delivers an MVP-caliber campaign. In such a scenario, not only would the star signal-caller lead his position in fantasy scoring, but Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis become must-starts every week for fantasy managers with tight end Dawson Knox also contributing as a high-end streaming option.
2022 worst-case scenario
Allen has operated in Daboll’s offense for his entire NFL career to date. Losing a play-caller doesn’t always doom an offense or quarterback, but the transition to Dorsey represents a significant change for a Bills staff that has remained remarkably consistent during head coach Sean McDermott’s tenure. If Dorsey fails to live up to Daboll’s standard, Allen’s productivity and efficiency could dip, dropping him out of the top tier of fantasy passers.
Only a few quarterbacks possess Allen’s upside and his year-to-year improvement has practically no peer in recent NFL history. Allen doesn’t even need to improve in order to outperform the other signal-callers in the league, though he might anyway. Regardless of exactly where he falls in the pantheon of passers, look for Allen to either lead his position in fantasy scoring again or come close.