The Indianapolis Colts head to Texas to take on the Houston Texans in Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season. The Colts brought in QB Matt Ryan from the Atlanta Falcons this offseason and will go about things with another new veteran QB. The Texans have second-year QB Davis Mills under center and not a whole lot of optimism heading into this season.
Here, we’ll take a look at our picks for best bets for Colts vs. Texans in Week 1 of the NFL season.
Update — Colts LB Shaq Leonard has been ruled out for Week 1.
All odds come courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Colts vs. Texans odds
Spread: Colts -7
Point total: 45.5
Moneyline: IND -320, HOU +265
Our picks, best bets
Pick against the spread: Colts -7
I don’t know how you can take Houston losing by a TD. If the Texans are going to lose this game, you’d think it’s by much more than a TD. The Colts have one of the better offensive lines, which should help Ryan execute to receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell. What’s the deal with this line? Is Houston underrated? The Texans have an underrated group on offense but it’s also a very young group. Outside of Brandin Cooks, Houston is leaning heavily on rookie RB Dameon Pierce and WR Nico Collins, plus Mills. This feels like, take the slam dunk with Colts -7 and if the Texans burn us, we know better heading into Week 2.
Over/under: under 45.5
Are the Colts going to get to this over by themselves? Noooooo. Indy would really have to run up the score. I think the Colts should be more heavily favored. The Texans could turn the ball over a bit. We know the script and it plays to both teams leaning on the run. The Colts could get up and just coast with RB Jonathan Taylor. We know Pierce will be a big part of the Texans offense. So if we get some sloppy football coupled with plenty of running, give me the under.
Player prop: Jonathan Taylor over 97.5 rushing yards (-115)
Taylor absolutely smashed the Texans last season for over 143 yards and two TDs in each game. There isn’t any value in Taylor’s anytime TD line at -230, although it isn’t a bad juicer to a parlay. Houston allowed 142.2 rushing yards per game last season. Personnel changes and bringing in Lovie Smith isn’t going to change that drastically. This game script plays well into the Colts building a lead and leaning on Taylor.
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