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Pick against the spread, over/under for Bucks vs. Heat on Thursday

We go over some of the best betting options for Thursday’s matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat.

Brooklyn Nets v Miami Heat Photo by Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images

Update: Antetokounmpo has been ruled out with a knee issue, but this is really a load management scenario. That’s going to swing this line in a big way. Joe Ingles and Grayson Allen are also out for Milwaukee. The line has now moved to Heat -6.5 and the total has dropped to 215. We still like the Heat ATS with Antetokoumpo out, and the under is still the play even at 215.


The Milwaukee Bucks (27-14) will take on the Miami Heat (22-20) Thursday night at FTX Arena with tip set for 7:30 p.m. ET. The Bucks, sitting in third place, are coming off their second straight win with a 114-105 victory over the Hawks on Wednesday night. Miami bounced back from a loss to the Nets with a 112-111 win over the Thunder on Tuesday. The Heat have now won six of their last 10.

Milwaukee will still be without Khris Middleton (knee) while Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday could be limited if they suit up at all in the second game of a back-to-back. Miami will be missing Tyler Herro (Achilles) and Kyle Lowry (knee), while Bam Adebayo (wrist) is listed as probable and is expected to return to the floor tonight.

DraftKings Sportsbook has the Heat as 4-point favorites at home tonight, priced at -170 on the moneyline. The Bucks come in at +145 while the point total is set at 217.

Bucks vs. Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET

Pick ATS: Heat -4

This pick comes with an asterisk and should be fairly dependent on whether Antetokounmpo sees the floor or not. Even then, he’s been held to single-digit points in two of his last three outings, putting up just seven points against the Hawks and nine against the Hornets. He’s still been dominating on the glass, though, averaging 12.6 rebounds through his last five games.

The Bucks have covered in four of their last five games while the Heat are 3-2 ATS in that same stretch, but they’ll look to take advantage of Antetokounmpo’s underwhelming offensive form if he plays. If both he and Holiday are held out due to injury management, Miami will hope to pounce on that situation as well. Jimmy Butler has averaged 27.0 points per game through his last four outings and will look to continue that form, especially after scoring the game-winner against the Thunder Tuesday.

Over/Under: Under 217

Although 217 is fairly low, both teams have finished under more often than not through their most recent play. Miami is 1-4 to the over in its last five games, while the Bucks are 2-3 in that same stretch. Those include some games with totals lower than the one set for tonight, and with both sides potentially missing some key offensive pieces, I’m taking the under in this one tonight.