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Betting the over/under for Chargers vs. Jaguars in the Wild Card Round

We make a pick for the over/under as the Chargers face the Jaguars in the Wild Card round of the 2023 NFL Playoffs.

Tennessee Titans v Jacksonville Jaguars Photo by Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images

The Jacksonville Jaguars will host the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs. Kickoff from TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Fla. is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET on Saturday, Jan. 14. The game will air on NBC.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chargers check in as 2.5-point road favorites with the total listed at 47.5. Below, we’ll break down how to approach the 47.5 over/under from a betting perspective.

Over/under pick: Chargers vs. Jaguars

The Jaguars have gone under the total in its last three games. However, that might have something to do with the opponents over that stretch. The New York Jets, Houston Texans, and Tennessee Titans were hardly offensive stalwarts to end the season. Still, the Jaguars were an “under team” at home, going 5-2 in that regard. Jacksonville was also 8-4 to the under against the AFC.

The Chargers are used to having an over/under in the 47-50+ point range. Despite that, they have gone under the total in five of their last six games. The defense allowed 17 or fewer points in four of the last five games to serve as the driving force down the stretch. All in all, the Chargers were 10-6-1 to the under in the regular season.

Jacksonville should establish the run against a Chargers’ defense that has given up 5.4 yards per carry this season (ranked last in NFL). If the Jags can do that successfully, then they’ll likely move the chains, burn the clock, and keep the explosive Chargers’ offense off the field. That, on top of the trends listed above, makes for a strong rationale to bet the under.

The Pick: Under 47.5